Micron’s Earnings Mirage: A Butterfly Flutters in the Data Center

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Two weeks shy of Micron (MU) unveiling its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings, the stock has already pirouetted upon the stage of speculative delight, driven less by tangible metrics than by the whispered incantations of a Citigroup analyst. This morning, Christopher Danely, whose name trips off the tongue like a riddle wrapped in enigma, bestowed upon Micron a fresh price target of $175 per share, reiterating his “buy” rating with the flourish of a maestro conducting an overture to optimism.

And so, Micron’s stock ascended-no, leapt-an impressive 8.9% by 11:20 a.m. ET, as though drawn skyward by invisible marionette strings. But what lies behind this choreography? Is it substance or shadow?

What Citi Murmurs About Micron

The consensus among analysts is that Micron will report earnings of $2.85 per share on September 23, and Mr. Danely nods sagely to this prediction, conceding that Micron shall indeed be “in line” with expectations. Yet, it is not these figures that quicken his pulse; rather, it is the tantalizing prospect of guidance-a forecast, perhaps, gilded with the honeyed promise of DRAM and NAND sales surging into fiscal 2026. Limited production meets voracious demand, particularly from those insatiable data centers, where artificial intelligence spreads its wings like some silicon phoenix reborn.

Ah, yes, AI-the great engine of our age, humming softly beneath the surface of human ambition. According to Danely’s crystal ball, by 2029, fully 34% of all NAND memory chips will flutter into the embrace of AI applications, adding $29 billion worth of global NAND sales. One can almost hear the coins clinking in the coffers of progress, though whether they are real or merely imagined remains an open question.

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Is Micron Stock a Buy?

Danely may don the mantle of Cassandra with uncanny precision-or he may simply be whistling in the dark. Most analysts tracking Micron foresee earnings of $10 per share in 2029, but here lies the rub: even if such prophecies prove true, Micron’s valuation today already exceeds 15 times those distant, hypothetical earnings. Investors, it seems, are not content to wait for reality-they have already priced in tomorrow’s dreams, savoring them as though they were yesterday’s certainties.

Consider further: Micron’s free cash flow languishes at less than one-third of its reported income, yet the stock trades at a dizzying 82 times FCF. To borrow a phrase from another realm, one might say the emperor wears no clothes-or at least none that would withstand scrutiny. For my part, I find myself reluctant to join the revelers dancing around this particular maypole. Micron, for all its shimmering allure, strikes me as a sell, a mirage shimmering on the horizon of hope.

And thus, dear reader, we arrive at the end of this little meditation, where fact and fancy intertwine like the threads of a spider’s web. Shall we trust the whispers of analysts, or heed the silent warnings etched in numbers? The choice, as always, is yours. 🦋

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2025-09-11 18:47