Micron: A Fleeting Bloom

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The markets, one observes, are perpetually draped in a peculiar optimism. A belief, unfounded as often as not, that the present trajectory will somehow, miraculously, continue. One sees it now in the talk of technology, of “explosive” returns. It’s a comfortable delusion, isn’t it? To imagine a limitless ascent.

Micron Technology, a name whispered among those who track the ebb and flow of memory chips, has been something of a curiosity. Long considered a cyclical enterprise, a mere commodity in the grand scheme, it now finds itself… favored. The age of artificial intelligence, it seems, demands a great deal of memory. A rather prosaic need, when one considers the lofty ambitions of the technology it serves.

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A Momentary Rise

Five years ago, February 10th, 2021, a hundred dollars invested in Micron would, as of today, yield approximately four hundred and seventy-two. A handsome return, certainly. A 36.3% annualized rate. The sort of figure that attracts attention, and inevitably, a degree of… speculation. One wonders if those who benefited were truly aware of what they possessed, or merely fortunate recipients of a temporary tide.

It wasn’t always so. Five years ago, the stock was already nearing a peak. A fragile elevation. Then came the inevitable correction – the pandemic’s fading, the rise in interest rates, the quiet cessation of demand from PCs, phones, and those vast server farms. A reminder, perhaps, that even the most promising ventures are subject to the whims of circumstance.

But the arrival of artificial intelligence… that altered the landscape. It requires a specific type of DRAM, called high-bandwidth memory – HBM. And the demand for HBM, one is told, is substantial. Projected to reach one hundred billion dollars by 2028. A figure that dwarfs the entire DRAM industry of just five years prior. A rather astonishing claim, isn’t it? One hopes it proves accurate.

And the production of HBM? It’s considerably more complex, demanding three to four times the equipment of traditional DRAM. A scarcity, therefore, is almost guaranteed. A predictable consequence, really. A shortage, of course, drives up prices. Analysts predict a 90% increase in DRAM prices in the first quarter of 2026, followed by another 20% in the second. A pleasing prospect for shareholders, no doubt. Though one wonders if such gains are sustainable.

The Inevitable Dusk?

Will the memory industry experience a severe “bust” after this unprecedented boom? Or have we entered a “new era” of stable prices and profits? It’s a question that haunts those who observe these cycles. Time, as always, will tell. Though one suspects the answer is rarely as dramatic as the questions suggest.

Analysts project Micron to earn $33.51 in 2026 and $42.97 in 2027. A total of $76.50 in earnings over two years. Almost equivalent to the stock price in February 2021, which hovered around $90. A curious coincidence, isn’t it? A fleeting return to a previous state. A reminder that progress, in the markets as in life, is rarely linear.

One observes the numbers, the projections, the optimistic forecasts. And one wonders… what will be left when the tide inevitably turns? What fragments of prosperity will remain when the bloom begins to fade?

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2026-02-11 20:14