If you’re seeking stocks capable of swift, substantial price changes within a brief period, the biotechnology sector could be your ideal destination. For instance, shares of ProKidney (PROK) were barely moving at under $1 per share towards the end of June. However, by the market’s close on July 10, this same stock was trading at an impressive $5.18 per share – a staggering 775% increase in just 10 short days!
The shares of ProKidney have dropped slightly since their peak on July 10, yet they remain significantly higher. Let’s examine the positive developments that propelled the stock to such heights, and consider whether it’s a wise investment choice today.
Why ProKidney stock spiked
Approximately 37 million adults in the United States suffer from a gradual and persistent condition known as chronic kidney disease (CKD), where kidney function gradually deteriorates over time. The primary focus of ProKidney’s leading drug, rilparencel, is individuals with advanced stages of CKD, which accounts for between 1 million to 2 million people in the U.S.
On the 8th of July, ProKidney revealed the outcomes of the phase 2 Regen-007 trial involving their leading candidate rilparencel. This experimental therapy is personally produced using cells taken from a patient’s kidneys for each batch. The company cultivates a population of specific kidney cells known to aid in repairing and rejuvenating kidney function, which are later reintroduced into patients suffering from Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD).
The administration of rilparencel significantly slowed down the annual decrease in patients’ estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), indicating improved kidney function. Compared to the placebo group, individuals who received two doses of rilparencel, one for each kidney, experienced a decline that was 78% slower. This implies that the treatment could significantly decrease patients’ risk of developing kidney failure and lessen their requirement for dialysis or transplantation.
It’s not surprising to anticipate high demand for a therapy that can help chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients avoid further complications, given that dialysis is costly and continuously monitoring transplants for rejection is another expensive process that insurance companies tend to steer clear of.
Know the risks
Approximately one year from now, we won’t have a definite schedule for when ProKidney can commence commercializing rilparencel. However, they’ve already begun enrolling patients with advanced Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in a phase 3 trial. The preliminary results aren’t anticipated until the year 2026.
In patients with advanced-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD), receiving two doses of rilparencel significantly slowed down the progression of their condition compared to a control group. However, another group that received a single initial dose and an additional dose only if kidney function deteriorated did not perform as well. Remarkably, for this second group, the yearly rate of decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was found to be half that of the placebo group.
Experiencing a 50% decrease in the rate at which my study group’s eGFR was declining sounds incredibly promising! However, with just 25 individuals involved in the research, the observed difference didn’t reach the threshold for statistical significance. But hey, it’s still an exciting finding that could lead to more significant results with a larger sample size!
As an ardent follower of medical advancements, I’m thrilled to be part of the anticipation surrounding ProKidney’s Phase 3 Proact 1 trial, more familiarly known as Regen-006. In this groundbreaking study, I’ll be one among hundreds who will receive rilparencel in each kidney. The encouraging outcomes from the smaller phase 2 Regn-007 trial have sparked optimism that we might be witnessing a significant stride towards nephrology breakthroughs. However, it’s essential to remember that success is not guaranteed, and there’s still a long road ahead.
What’s next for ProKidney?
As an enthusiast, I’m thrilled to share some fantastic news! Recently, our team had a productive meeting with representatives from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). They’ve agreed to accept a notable increase in the rate of eGFR decline as a substitute indicator for the traditional, time-consuming method of waiting for patients’ kidneys to fail. This means we could potentially prepare and submit our application package to the FDA ahead of schedule – possibly even before the end of next year! What an exciting turn of events for rilparencel!
In essence, those who invest in this particular industry ought to be well-versed with the FDA, as it seldom discloses details about private discussions with pharmaceutical companies. If ProKidney is portraying regulatory assessments of eGFR rates as an alternative endpoint inaccurately, it’s unlikely that anyone from the agency would clarify this for us.
Is the stock a buy now?
By the end of trading on July 18, ProKidney’s market value stood at a relatively modest $408 million. Given that this pharmaceutical company may still be a couple of years from releasing a treatment for an estimated million underserved Americans, this seems quite undervalued. If the phase 3 trials slated for next year validate the promising results seen in phase 2, this stock could experience significant growth.
It’s unlikely that investors should be concerned about ProKidney exhausting its resources before it can regain its luster, given that it ended March with a cash reserve of $328.5 million on its balance sheet, having spent $38 million in the first quarter.
Nevertheless, potential investors ought to be aware that several issues could potentially derail Rilaparencel’s journey towards becoming a profitable commercial product. For those with a high tolerance for risk, investing a moderate amount in this stock might not be an unwise choice at present.
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2025-07-22 13:07