Maytree’s Fancies: A Semiconductor Speculation

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It is, of course, always amusing to observe the herd instincts of the investment world. One scarcely needs a telescope to witness the predictable stampedes. The latest diversion? A modest flutter in the shares of AXT, Inc. – a purveyor of semiconductor substrates, and, one gathers, the building blocks of modern vanity.

Maytree Asset Management, a Hong Kong-based firm with a penchant for the exotic, has recently acquired a stake of some $11.16 million in AXT. A substantial sum, certainly, though in the grand theatre of finance, merely a pleasant distraction. The truly wealthy, one suspects, measure their fortunes in lost masterpieces, not mere silicon.

This purchase elevates AXT to the top five holdings of Maytree’s portfolio – a curious distinction, and one that suggests either remarkable foresight or a particularly charming brochure. Their current holdings, for those inclined to tabulation, include PDD ($58.18 million), INTC ($12.13 million), NVDA ($11.68 million), and SNPS ($9.82 million) – a rather prosaic collection, save for the aforementioned AXT.

The stock, it must be admitted, has experienced a rather impertinent surge. From a mere $1.13 last April, it now trades at $20.94 – a rise of 911.6% in a single year. Such exuberance is, naturally, attributed to the current mania surrounding artificial intelligence. It seems everyone now believes they can build a thinking machine, and AXT, it appears, is to provide the bricks.

One should, however, approach such triumphs with a healthy dose of skepticism. A year ago, fortunes were being made on tulip bulbs, and the year before, on the promise of perpetual motion. AXT, while not quite so fantastical, remains a company posting a net loss of $22.98 million. To believe that a loss can be transformed into a profit simply by renaming it “investment” is, shall we say, optimistic.

The firm’s third-quarter revenue did rise to $28 million, a modest improvement over the previous year’s $23.6 million, but it’s hardly a revolution. The market, it seems, is valuing AXT at approximately nine times its sales. A rather extravagant price, even for a company peddling the dreams of digital deities.

Maytree’s purchase, therefore, is a gamble – a rather fashionable one, to be sure, but a gamble nonetheless. To chase such ephemeral gains is, in my experience, a pastime best left to those with more enthusiasm than sense. One might say it’s the mark of a vulgar mind to mistake activity for achievement.

My advice? Observe the spectacle with detached amusement. Let others scramble for the glittering prizes. A wise investor, like a discerning aesthete, knows that true value lies not in what is fashionable, but in what endures. And as a general rule, if something appears too good to be true, it usually is. Or, as I like to say, to buy high and sell low is the true art of financial self-destruction.

(Financial data as of February 2, 2026. Market capitalization: $1.15 billion. Revenue (TTM): $90.39 million. Net income (TTM): ($22.98 million).)

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2026-02-03 20:33