Lucid Group: A Decade of Electric Dreams?

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The story of Lucid Group (LCID +3.68%) is, when you think about it, a rather curious one. A company dedicated to moving people from A to B using electricity, a concept so commonplace now that we barely question the sheer, baffling improbability of it all. And the next decade, well, that’s where things get really interesting – or, potentially, just…more complicated. They plan, as all companies do, to release new models. And, in a move that is less surprising than it should be, they seem to be looking rather intently at what Tesla is doing. (It’s a bit like a particularly slow-moving game of cosmic follow-the-leader, isn’t it? One wonders if the universe keeps score.)

Where will Lucid be in ten years? The question itself presupposes a linear progression of time, which, let’s be honest, is a rather optimistic assumption. But, assuming time continues to…flow (a concept best left to physicists), investors should focus on two rather large, rather important, catalysts.

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1. The Inevitable Descent to Affordability

The history of technological adoption is, at its core, the story of things becoming cheaper. Initially, only those with a surplus of resources – or a profound lack of common sense – can afford the new gadget. Then, slowly, inexorably, the price drops until everyone has one. (It’s a bit like entropy, really. Everything tends towards disorder…and affordability.) For electric vehicles, this means mass-market models. Right now, Lucid’s vehicles cost…a substantial amount. Enough to make most people reconsider the entire concept of personal transportation. Over $100,000, depending on how many unnecessary options you select. (One wonders if they offer a self-destruct button as an option. Now that would be a selling point.) The vast majority of Tesla’s sales now come from the Model 3 and Model Y, vehicles that, while still not inexpensive, are at least within the realm of possibility for the average consumer.

Lucid has hinted at cheaper models. Last year, they mentioned several in the pipeline, with price tags under $50,000. However, updates have been…sparse. The latest word suggests a cheap SUV might emerge from their Saudi Arabian factory around late 2026. But Lucid has, shall we say, a history of optimistic timelines. 2027 wouldn’t be entirely surprising. (Time, as we’ve established, is a slippery concept.) Given their current financial situation, a slight delay would be…understandable. Still, cheaper vehicles are essential for any EV maker hoping to achieve long-term growth. Whether it arrives this year, next year, or in the distant future, expect Lucid to prioritize affordability. Over the next decade, these models should account for the majority of their sales, mirroring Tesla’s current breakdown.

2. The Strategic Shift: From Hardware to…What Exactly?

I suspect cheaper models will drive most of Lucid’s vehicle sales over the next decade, but not necessarily their total sales. Lucid’s leadership has repeatedly stated that, long-term, they envision a future where hardware sales represent only a minority of their revenue. They want to become a software provider, supplying other EV makers with the code required for advanced features like autonomous driving. (It’s a bit like becoming the oxygen supplier to a planet of robots. A solid business plan, if you can avoid the inevitable robot uprising.)

While Tesla still relies heavily on vehicle sales, Elon Musk has a grander vision. Robotaxis, artificial intelligence, and other software components will increasingly drive Tesla’s revenue in the future. Rivian is attempting a similar pivot, and Lucid is likely to follow suit. Whether Lucid can pull it off is another question entirely. Their financial resources are…limited. (One might say they’re operating on a slightly smaller budget than a small principality.) However, over the next decade, investors should expect this strategic shift. Being comfortable with dedicating significant resources to this potential growth driver is crucial for all shareholders. (And perhaps investing in a good therapist. Just in case.)

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2026-02-15 11:12