Lucid [LCID 0.71%], sprung from the quickening of a 2021 merger, once held the sheen of promise in a landscape hungry for electric dreams. November of that year saw its stock climb to $57.75 a share, a peak against a horizon that seemed limitless. But the desert is a hard teacher, and fortunes, like water, can vanish quickly.
Now, the stock trades below ten dollars. A reckoning, some might say. But the land holds stories for those who listen, and sometimes, even in the dust, a bloom can take root. Let us look at what brought Lucid low, and whether a small investment might find purchase in this arid ground.
Why the Thirst?
The initial fervor around Lucid stemmed from a confluence of hopes. Peter Rawlinson, a name whispered with reverence from his days at Tesla [TSLA 1.98%], lent his expertise. The company aimed for a different patch of ground than Tesla, targeting those who desired luxury, not merely transport. And, most boldly, they spoke of delivering 20,000 vehicles in 2022, a number that climbed to 49,000 in 2023 and 90,000 in 2024. Such pronouncements always carry a risk; the desert doesn’t reward boasting.
But the numbers, like mirages, shimmered and faded. Deliveries totaled only 4,369 in 2022, 6,001 in 2023, and 10,241 in 2024. The explanations were familiar: supply lines stretched thin, the flow of subsidies slowed, competition tightened its grip, and the broader economic winds blew against them. The launch of the Gravity SUV was delayed, pushed back from late 2023 to late 2024, and Rawlinson stepped down in early 2025 – a shift in the currents, to be sure.
A Seedling’s Chance?
These setbacks are disheartening, yet the plant isn’t withered. In 2025, deliveries rose by 55% to 15,841 vehicles as production of the Gravity SUV began to gain momentum. Production nearly doubled to 17,840 vehicles, and the company anticipates 25,000 to 27,000 vehicles rolling off the line in 2026. These are small gains, but gains nonetheless.
Lucid still benefits from the deep pockets of the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund (PIF), which holds over 60% of the shares. It held $4.6 billion in liquidity at the end of 2025. And it is fulfilling a ten-year order for 100,000 vehicles for the Saudi Arabian government, a commitment made in 2022. A powerful patron, certainly, but even patronage cannot guarantee survival in a harsh climate.
In 2025, Lucid forged a partnership with Uber [UBER 0.65%] and Nuro, intending to deploy at least 20,000 autonomous Gravity SUVs across the United States over six years. The company plans to launch a more affordable SUV, the “Earth,” in late 2026 or early 2027. To support this expansion, it will upgrade its AMP-1 plant in Arizona and build a new AMP-2 plant in Saudi Arabia. However, the recent conflicts in the Middle East cast a long shadow over these plans – a reminder that even the most carefully laid plans can be disrupted by forces beyond control.
Analysts predict Lucid’s revenue will rise more than fivefold from 2025 to 2028, as losses narrow. This is an ambitious trajectory for a stock trading at less than one times next year’s sales. It might be worth a small investment, a cautious tending of this fragile bloom, if these efforts bear fruit. But remember, the desert demands patience, and even the most promising seedlings can wither under the relentless sun. A watchful eye, and a small stake, may yet yield a harvest.
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2026-03-06 18:42