Live Nation Entertainment (LYV +2.19%) is due to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 19th, and the stock, shall we say, isn’t exactly selling out. It’s been treading water, which, given the company’s line of business, feels a bit ironic. Over the past year, it’s slipped about 4% while the broader market has cheerfully bounded ahead by 12%. So, the question for potential investors is a classic one: jump in now and risk a post-earnings dip, or wait for clarity and potentially miss out on a bit of a show?
The Show Must Go On (And Apparently, It Is)
The third quarter of 2025 was all about stadium shows, a fact that, if you’ve ever been to a stadium show, isn’t entirely surprising. They had a whopping 60% increase in events, adding around $40 million to their concert profits. Management is feeling bullish about 2026, claiming ticket sales are already significantly ahead of last year. Which is encouraging, unless of course, everyone’s just really, really eager to see a band they haven’t seen in three years. As CFO Joe Berchtold put it on the earnings call, “Tickets sold, sponsorships committed, deferred revenue a lot of factors are pointing extremely positively.” It’s the sort of statement that sounds impressive until you realize it could apply to nearly any successful enterprise. Like a bakery, for example. Or a very efficient shoe-polishing service.
Interestingly, Live Nation is finding a growing audience outside the U.S. For the first time, international attendance is projected to surpass domestic numbers. Ticket sales are soaring in Latin America and parts of Europe. It appears the world, quite simply, enjoys a good concert. Who knew?
Ticketmaster: Playing Nice(ish)
On the Ticketmaster front, they’ve been cracking down on scalpers and bots, canceling over a million dodgy accounts in October. Good for fans, certainly, and good for the long-term health of the brand. Though it will, predictably, ding near-term profits by a low-to-mid single-digit percentage. It’s a bit like deciding to be a decent person – often comes with a financial cost. More recently, Live Nation has been cautiously wading into the ticket resale reform movement, publicly supporting artists like Olivia Dean who are capping resale prices. They’ve even backed legislative efforts in New York and California to restrict markups. It’s a clever move, really. Look consumer-friendly while regulators are sniffing around, and potentially steer more transactions through Ticketmaster’s primary platform. Though the “dynamic pricing” system – the one that caused outrage in 2023 with those eye-watering Taylor Swift and Bruce Springsteen ticket prices – remains firmly in place. A bit of a mixed message, wouldn’t you say?
They’re also aligning themselves with artists calling for broader ticketing reform. A bit of a “have your cake and eat it” scenario, really. It allows Live Nation to appear consumer-friendly while simultaneously protecting its business model. It’s a delicate balancing act, like trying to herd cats…or, more accurately, concert-goers.
And then there’s the Department of Justice antitrust trial looming in March. Discovery is complete, and Live Nation seems confident, but regulatory uncertainty always casts a shadow. It’s a bit like planning a picnic in England – you can hope for sunshine, but it’s best to pack a raincoat.
The Earnings Call Cheat Sheet (For Those Who Like That Sort of Thing)
For Thursday’s call, investors should pay attention to updates on 2026 concert demand, any shifts in consumer spending (management claimed no pullback in the third quarter, but that was before the holiday season, which is often a bit of a spending spree), and whether the Ticketmaster anti-fraud measures are still impacting profits.
Personally, I wouldn’t load up on Live Nation stock before the call. It’s been a bit volatile lately, trading at a rather lofty price-to-earnings ratio of 115. And the company’s quarterly updates have been a bit of a mixed bag, with negative bottom-line surprises in the last three reports. It’s a bit like betting on a horse that’s shown promise but hasn’t quite crossed the finish line. Interesting, perhaps, but not exactly a sure thing.
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2026-02-17 00:33