Right. Eli Lilly. LLY. It’s reporting earnings on February 4th. Which, naturally, is causing a low-level hum of anxiety. I mean, I try to be a rational investor. I really do. But it’s hard. Especially when billions are at stake. (Okay, not my billions. But still.) They’ve been doing well, obviously – the largest healthcare company in the world, no small feat – but earnings season is like a first date. So much potential, so much possibility of awkward silences and regrettable decisions.
I’ve been attempting to discern a pattern. A clue. Something to tell me whether to buy, sell, or hide under the duvet with a large bar of chocolate. It’s proving…difficult. Last time, strong results, stock went up. Good. Logical. Then, equally good results, but a slightly disappointing trial for a new drug, and the stock fell. It was a shock. A complete betrayal of everything I thought I knew. (Which, admittedly, isn’t much.)
Units of Confidence Lost: 7. Hours Spent Refreshing Financial News: 6. Number of Times I’ve Considered Becoming a Beekeeper: 4.
Apparently, even really good results might not be enough. LLY is trading at a rather lofty 32.5 times forward earnings. Which sounds…expensive. Compared to other healthcare stocks, at least. So, it needs a really good showing. Top-line growth, strong guidance, and clinical data that doesn’t send everyone running for the hills. It’s a lot to ask, really.
And then there’s tirzepatide. The weight loss drug that’s become a global phenomenon. It’s been flying off the shelves, which is good. But they had to slash the price, which is…less good. More volume, yes, but at what cost? It’s a puzzle. A complicated, financially-charged puzzle. Honestly, predicting which way the stock will move feels like trying to predict the weather in April.
So, February 4th. It might jump. It might fall. It might just…hover. And you know what? Long-term investors shouldn’t obsess. (Easier said than done, obviously.) The real question is, can LLY maintain its momentum? And, on that front, things look promising. They’re leading the weight management market, and they’ve got two new drugs in the pipeline. Orforglipron and retatrutide. Sounds…hopeful.
They’re also diversified, with exciting projects in immunology and oncology. And, for those of us who like a little income, they’ve been steadily increasing their dividends. Not a huge yield, admittedly, but a respectable one. Plus, they’ve doubled their dividends in five years, while keeping things conservative. Which is…sensible. (A rare quality in the financial world, I’ve discovered.)
So, yes. I think I’ll buy a few shares. Now. And maybe a few more if it drops after the earnings report. It’s a risk, of course. Everything is. But sometimes, you just have to take a leap of faith. (And hope you don’t land in a pile of debt.)
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2026-01-30 15:22