Joel R Mogy Investment Counsel Dumps $7.5 Million Worth of Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) Shares: A Dismal Drama Unfolds

In the latest episode of financial melodrama, Joel R Mogy Investment Counsel (JMIC) made an exit from Adobe (ADBE) on October 16, 2025, divesting a rather substantial 20,929 shares in the third quarter of 2025. The sale, valued at an eye-watering $7.51 million, certainly left some investors with more questions than answers. The plot thickens, as it often does with these transactions.

What Happened?

Ah, the ever-thrilling tale of investment shifts. JMIC, a once-stalwart supporter of Adobe, reduced its position in the company, unloading those 20,929 shares during Q3 2025. The estimated value of this move-based on the average price for the quarter-was $7.51 million. Quite a sum, don’t you think? Of course, one could imagine the boardroom murmurs over this strategic maneuver. Now, the firm’s stake stands at a somewhat less impressive 50,664 shares, as confirmed in their SEC Form 13-F filing on October 16, 2025.

What Else to Know?

The sale has made a noticeable dent in JMIC’s portfolio. Adobe, once a darling of the investment world, now represents a mere 0.98% of its total $1.83 billion U.S. equity assets under management (AUM), down from a more respectable 1.60% in the previous quarter. The drop is hardly subtle, and it does suggest a shift in sentiment-perhaps even a whispered acknowledgment that all is not quite as rosy at Adobe as it once appeared.

Following the filing, we take a glance at JMIC’s top holdings, which now reveal a rather curious mix of tech stalwarts and consumer giants:

Nvidia: $257.28 million (14.1% of AUM) as of September 30, 2025
Alphabet: $158.37 million (8.68% of AUM) as of September 30, 2025
Apple: $155.49 million (8.52% of AUM) as of September 30, 2025
Microsoft: $148.56 million (8.14% of AUM) as of September 30, 2025
Costco Wholesale: $91.43 million (5.0% of AUM)

Now, just to add a bit of spice to the proceedings, let’s reflect on Adobe’s stock performance. As of October 15, 2025, Adobe shares were languishing at $330.63-a price point that marks a rather harrowing 34.9% decline over the past year, trailing the S&P 500 by a staggering 49 percentage points. One can only imagine the consternation among those who had held their positions a tad too long.

Company Overview

Metric	Value
Revenue (TTM)	$23.18 billion
Net Income (TTM)	$6.96 billion
Price (as of market close 10/15/25)	$330.63
One-Year Price Change	-34.92%

Company Snapshot

Adobe, with its repertoire of Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and digital experience tools, has long been a behemoth in the software world. Most of its revenue springs from its recurring subscription model, which sounds all well and good, but I can’t help but feel that the markets are growing a little weary of the same old song. Its business model-based on the cloud, selling directly to enterprises and end users, with the assistance of a global partner network-has served it well, but is it enough to weather the storm of competition?

It serves a clientele that ranges from content creators to marketers, all the way to creative professionals across industries. Yet, one does wonder-how long can it sustain this business model before the winds of disruption blow too strongly?

Foolish Take

Let’s not beat about the bush-JMIC has been, until recently, rather fond of Adobe. Two years ago, it held a rather substantial 2.5% of its portfolio in the software giant. But now, well, it’s a different story altogether. Over the past two quarters, JMIC has steadily sold off its Adobe shares, and the latest quarter saw a particularly heavy reduction. The question on everyone’s lips is whether they’ve seen something we haven’t-or whether the company’s decline is simply too dramatic to ignore.

And then, of course, there’s the issue of artificial intelligence (AI). Adobe has found itself caught up in the AI maelstrom, which has become a battleground for creativity, and perhaps for survival. OpenAI’s recent Sora 2 model, which allows users to create video clips from text, could well disrupt Adobe’s video editing business. In other words, there’s a real possibility that Adobe’s position in the market might not be as secure as once thought. It’s a development that even a dividend hunter might find rather disconcerting, although not nearly as disconcerting as the latest turn of events in Adobe’s stock price.

However, let us not be entirely dismissive. Adobe has increased its sales by 11% in the past year, and its professional video capabilities remain remarkably robust. With Adobe Firefly-its own foray into generative AI-it seems Adobe is, at the very least, aware of the threat. Still, there’s no denying that the risks are mounting, and the market’s uncertainty is palpable.

At just 15 times free cash flow, Adobe might indeed offer some tantalizing value for the bold and the brave. But JMIC, it seems, prefers to take the safer route. A little too prudent, perhaps, for those of us with a penchant for high-stakes dividend hunting.

Glossary

AUM (Assets Under Management): The total market value of all investments managed by a fund or investment firm.
Form 13-F: A quarterly SEC filing by institutional investment managers disclosing their equity holdings.
Q3: The third quarter of a company’s fiscal year, typically covering July through September.
Reportable U.S. equity assets: U.S. stocks and related securities that must be disclosed in regulatory filings.
Top holdings: The largest individual investments in a fund’s portfolio, usually ranked by market value.
Stake: The ownership interest or number of shares a fund or investor holds in a company.
Subscription-driven business model: A model where customers pay recurring fees for ongoing access to products or services.
Global partner network: A group of companies or organizations worldwide that help distribute or sell a firm’s products.
TTM: The 12-month period ending with the most recent quarterly report.

One can’t help but feel that the grand drama is only just beginning. 🎭

2025-10-19 06:22