One finds oneself, these days, pondering the future of transport. And, dash it all, the name of Joby Aviation (JOBY +0.97%) keeps cropping up, rather like a persistent aunt at a garden party. They are, you see, engaged in the decidedly ambitious undertaking of constructing flying taxis – or, as the technically-minded chaps call them, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Not, I hasten to add, anything resembling the rather flamboyant contraption from that Back to the Future film. No, Joby’s creation is far more refined, boasting six tilting rotors which allow it to ascend and descend with a quiet dignity, lacking the usual helicopterish bluster.
This venture falls, naturally, into the rather grandly-titled market of urban air mobility. Morgan Stanley, in a moment of optimistic forecasting, once suggested this market might reach a positively staggering $9 trillion by 2050. Should that prove to be the case, Joby, being one of the leading pioneers in this nascent field, might conceivably set today’s investors up for life. A thrilling prospect, wouldn’t you agree? Though, one must add, the Morgan Stanley estimate dates back to 2021, and the future, as any seasoned observer knows, has a habit of behaving in a most unpredictable fashion.
A Most Promising Ascent?
For Joby Aviation to truly deliver the goods, it first needs to demonstrate that its aircraft are, shall we say, perfectly safe. Or, to put it in the jargon of the industry, secure its certification ducks in a rather neat row. And, it appears, they are making admirable progress on that front. They recently flew their first FAA-conforming aircraft for Type Inspection Authorization (TIA), a truly significant step toward obtaining the necessary approvals to carry paying passengers aloft. A dashedly clever bit of engineering, what!
Assuming they manage to navigate the bureaucratic hurdles (and one wouldn’t wish a tangle with the FAA on one’s worst enemy), the next challenge is rather prosaic: actually manufacturing enough aircraft to turn a profit. Joby, however, seems to be addressing this with commendable efficiency. They’ve recently acquired a 700,000-square-foot facility in Ohio, capable of producing as many as four aircraft per month by 2027. A most encouraging sign, wouldn’t you say?
Having perfectly safe and certified air taxis is, of course, all very well, but utterly useless without customers. And in this modern age, that means connecting Joby’s service to passengers through a mobile app. They’ve partnered with Uber to roll out Uber Air, allowing Uber riders to book Joby flights directly through the familiar app. A partnership that, one suspects, will prove mutually beneficial.
These are, without a doubt, essential steps towards getting paying passengers into Joby’s aircraft. But are they sufficient to transform early investors into millionaires? That, my dear reader, is the sixty-four-dollar question.
Let’s approach this numerically. Joby’s stock currently trades under $10, giving it a market capitalization of roughly $10 billion. To truly set one up for life, a 100-fold gain would be required. A $10,000 investment, thus transformed, would yield a rather handsome $1 million. A tempting proposition, wouldn’t you agree?
Could Joby actually achieve such a phenomenal increase? A 100-fold jump in its stock price would bring its market capitalization to a staggering $1 trillion. For comparison, Uber’s current market cap is a mere $158 billion. Not entirely impossible, perhaps, but decidedly unlikely. A more realistic scenario might see Joby delivering a 20- or even 30-times return for investors. Still a respectable outcome, but one wouldn’t advise wagering the family silver on it.
At present, Joby remains a speculative play on a nascent market. It possesses the potential to deliver a life-changing sum of money over time, but it is unlikely to be the sole investment that secures one’s financial future. A diversified portfolio, one suspects, remains the wisest course of action. A bit of caution, after all, never did anyone any harm.
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2026-03-23 23:02