Joby Aviation: A 20% Dip in a Sky Full of Dragons?

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Behold, dear investor, the latest miracle of modern capitalism: electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft, or eVTOLs. These contraptions, which promise to ferry us above the chaos of terrestrial traffic, have been likened to air taxis. A noble ambition, one might think, until one remembers that “taxi” in this context means “a vehicle that will likely cost as much as your firstborn child.” According to the Grand View Research Almanac of Economic Sorcery, the global market for these devices was worth roughly $1 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to nearly $29 billion by the end of the decade. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 55%, which, if applied to your savings account, would make you wonder if you’d accidentally inherited a dragon’s hoard.[1]

Among the hopefuls in this skybound scramble is Joby Aviation (JOBY), a company currently in the “early innings” of development, which is investor code for “we haven’t made any money yet, but we’re working on it.” It’s not certified to fly its aircraft, though it may be by next year. The potential is there, of course-everyone wants to be the first to sell a ticket to the clouds, even if the clouds are still a bit blurry on the blueprint.

Recently, Joby’s stock has been on a slide down the stock market’s slippery pole, now 20% below its 52-week high of $20.95. This is curious, as the stock has still more than doubled this year. One might ask, “Is this a buying opportunity?” or “Is this the calm before the dragon’s roar?” The answer, as always, is “Possibly. Possibly not. Let us discuss the finer points of financial alchemy.”

Has Joby’s Valuation Become a Dragon’s Hoard Too Soon?

Joby’s market cap currently hovers at a lofty $15 billion. For a company that hasn’t yet sold a single air taxi, this is akin to building a palace before you’ve bought the bricks. The eVTOL market itself is projected to be worth $29 billion by the end of the decade, which means investors are essentially betting that Joby will corner the market before the certification process becomes a bureaucratic dragon of its own.[2]

This is the peril of investing in the future: you’re not just buying a stock; you’re buying a story. And stories, like dragons, can be fickle. If Joby falters-even slightly-the market cap may decide to take a nap, leaving shareholders with a very expensive napkin.

Competition is also stirring. Archer Aviation, another hopeful in this skybound race, is working on its own eVTOL, the Midnight. One might say the skies are getting crowded, but then again, if you’re the first to build a bridge to the moon, the traffic jams are worth it.

A Kingdom of Partnerships and Promises

Joby has been busy forging alliances with the titans of industry: Toyota, Delta Air Lines, and Virgin Atlantic. These partnerships are less about immediate profit and more about securing a seat at the table when the first air taxi routes open. It’s the financial equivalent of buying a plot of land in a city that hasn’t been built yet-speculative, but potentially lucrative.

The company has also partnered with L3Harris to build hybrid VTOLs for defense. A wise move, perhaps, as governments are often more willing to overlook minor technical flaws in the name of national security. Or, as one might say in the Unseen University of Defense Contracts, “If it looks like a dragon and flies like a dragon, it’s probably a classified asset.”[3]

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To Buy or Not to Buy? That Is the Question

Joby’s story is compelling, but compelling stories often come with a price. At $15 billion, the company’s valuation assumes not only certification but also rapid production and market dominance. If you’re investing, you’re not just buying shares; you’re buying a slice of “what if.” And what if is a slippery creature.

My counsel? Wait. Watch. Let the dragon take flight before you board. Certifications are pending, and production is a distant horizon. By the time Joby clears those hurdles, you’ll have a clearer picture of whether this is a golden egg or a goose that lays debt.

For now, the skies of opportunity remain high and the risks, well… airborne. Let the chart above guide you, and remember: even dragons need time to warm up their engines. 🧹

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2025-08-15 18:16