Ladies and gentlemen, behold! Bitcoin, that most erratic of suitors, has plummeted beneath the $100,000 mark for the second time in a week, having lost 12% in a mere month. The grand crypto ballroom has shed over $700 billion in value, while the Fear and Greed Index, that most fickle of companions, now whispers of “extreme fear.”
Pray, do these harrowing omens signal a bear market? Let us dissect the matter with the precision of a well-aimed quill.
Sentiment Signals: A Most Unsettling Assembly
The Fear & Greed Index, at a paltry 10, mirrors the despair of early 2022 and June 2022-eras confirmed by history to be bear-market winters.
- Yesterday: 16
- Last week: 20
- Last month: 28
The trend? Accelerating dread, not the calm before the storm. Bear markets, much like ill-advised marriages, often begin with a crescendo of panic.
Yet sentiment alone cannot anoint a bear market-it merely hints at surrender or exhaustion. One must not confuse a lady’s sigh for a proposal of matrimony.
Bitcoin’s Fall from Grace (or the 365-Day MA)
The 365-day moving average, that most sacred of bull-market pillars, now stands near $102,000. Alas, Bitcoin lies below it, a sight reminiscent of December 2021, when the bear market was declared with the solemnity of a funeral.
- The 365-day MA: $102,000
- Bitcoin’s current plight: Beneath it
- Historical precedent: December 2021, the bear’s first waltz
History’s ledger:
| Cycle | MA Lost? | Outcome |
| 2018 | Yes | Full bear market |
| 2021 | Yes | Full bear market |
| 2025 | Yes (now) | Bear-phase risk rising |
Should Bitcoin fail to reclaim this threshold swiftly, it may yet confirm a regime shift. This, dear reader, is the strongest argument for a bear-market courtship.
Bitcoin’s “Death Cross” Has Been Announced! 🐻
The Death Cross (an ironically BULLISH indicator) has just triggered, EXACTLY timed with BTC tagging the lower boundary of the megaphone pattern it’s in.
Several weeks ago we predicted this would happen around mid-November. Well, here we are.…
– 𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 🪙 (@ColinTCrypto) November 15, 2025
On-Chain Cost Basis: A Tale of Woe and Weakness
The 6-12 month UTXO realized price now rests at $94,600, with Bitcoin teetering slightly above. This is dire, for these holders-those “bull-cycle conviction” enthusiasts-now find themselves in a state of loss.
- Purchased during the ETF rally
- Believers in the bull-market narrative
- Loss = structural fragility
In 2021, this very scenario preceded the extended downtrend. Thus, we may conclude: This is a mid-cycle break, not a full-blown bearish romance.
BULL MARKETS DON’T END LIKE THIS! 💸
I’ve weathered multiple bull/bear storms:
2001 dotcom, 2008 housing, 2017 crypto, 2021 crypto, etc.When bull markets end, either something breaks or belief in the asset crumbles.
In 2001, people really doubted the…
– Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) November 15, 2025
RSI: A Dance of Oversold Despair
The RSI readings paint a picture of distress:
- Average crypto RSI: 43.09
- BTC RSI: Among the lowest in large caps
- Overbought assets: 2.5%
- Oversold assets: Most
This echoes May-July 2021, August 2023, and August 2024-eras of mid-cycle corrections, not full-blown bearish despair. Should RSI linger in oversold territory for weeks, the bear’s shadow will loom larger.
Currently, the RSI whispers of stress, not a full surrender.
MACD: A Mixed Bag of Momentum
The average normalized MACD now stands at 0.02, a feeble attempt at bullish momentum. Meanwhile, 58% of market assets sport positive momentum-yet Bitcoin languishes deep in the negative.
When BTC’s MACD is negative but the broader market retains positive momentum, it suggests a transition phase, not a full bearish rout.
In true bear markets, 90%+ of assets would share BTC’s gloom. Alas, we are not there yet.
Is This a Bear Market? The Final Verdict
The crypto realm is not yet in a confirmed bear market-it is a mid-cycle breakdown, teetering on the precipice of becoming one. Should two conditions align, the bear may yet claim its throne.
Three omens would confirm a bear run:
- Bitcoin remains below the 365-day MA for 4-6 weeks (a ritual performed in 2014, 2018, and 2022).
- Long-term holders distribute 1M BTC in 60 days (a most unromantic act).
- MACD turns fully negative across the market (a final curtain call).
TBH this is the easiest bear market I’ve ever seen. 🐻
Seems like most of you have forgotten what 2022 was like. Luna collapsing, then 3AC, then FTX, then Genesis, BlockFi, Axie, NFTs-everything felt like a house of cards.
And then after all that stuff collapsed, the…
– Haseeb ＞|＜ (@hosseeb) November 14, 2025
In summation: The crypto world is not yet in a bear market, but it dances perilously close to the edge. Should Bitcoin falter in reclaiming its long-term support, the bear may yet feast. One can only hope the dance concludes with a waltz, not a funeral.
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2025-11-16 00:34