Is Bitcoin’s $110K Dream Just a Mirage? 🤔💸

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In the dimly lit corridors of the financial world, a curious spectacle unfolds. The price of Bitcoin, that elusive creature, has faced a rather stern rejection at the lofty heights of $89,000. As the clock ticks towards the release of the US PCE data this Friday, it appears that our dear BTC has already begun its descent, trading at a rather disheartening $84,986, down 1.76%. The daily trading volume, however, has seen a curious uptick of 20%, surpassing $30 billion. Ah, the irony! 📉

Now, let us turn our gaze to the Bitcoin Macro Index, a creation of Capriole from the year 2022, which, like a wise old sage, warns us of a bearish market lurking just around the corner. As BTCUSD grapples with the formidable resistance levels, the on-chain metrics whisper tales of weakness, hinting at a loss of that once-bullish momentum. The index, a veritable oracle of Bitcoin’s historical value, has been forming lower highs since late 2023, while BTC/USD has been gallantly recording higher highs. A “bearish divergence,” they call it. How poetic! 🎭

Edwards, a voice of reason amidst the chaos, remarks, “This is not a very great sign.” Indeed, not great at all! But fear not, dear reader, for when the Bitcoin Macro Index decides to don its positive attire, I shall not be one to resist its charm. — Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) March 28, 2025

Meanwhile, the CryptoQuant data reveals that our Bitcoin whales are reducing their leverage, a sign of shifting sentiments in the market. A decline in BTC flows to derivatives suggests that these mighty holders are feeling a tad less adventurous. Historically, such trends have often heralded bearish movements. 🐻

As we continue to observe, Bitcoin’s price finds itself under further pressure, slipping below the $85,000 mark, as the US PCE core inflation surprises us all with a higher-than-expected figure of 2.8% for February. Macro indicators, it seems, are the puppeteers of Bitcoin’s fate. Veteran trader Peter Brandt echoes this sentiment, suggesting that the BTCUSDT pair may very well tumble down to $70,000. A reasonable expectation, indeed! — Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) March 28, 2025

Today’s Bitcoin options expiry data reveals a staggering 139,000 BTC contracts expiring, with a Put/Call ratio of 0.49 and a Max Pain point of $85,000. The notional value? A jaw-dropping $12.1 billion! The quarterly delivery accounts for over 40% of total options positions, with BTC options representing nearly 80% of these deliveries. And as if that weren’t enough, implied volatility has taken a dip, with BTC’s major-term volatility falling below 50%. What a delightful mess! 🎢

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2025-03-28 20:22