Investing in Hexcel: A Tricky Yet Promising Proposition

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Hexcel (HXL) is like the kid who never gets picked for the baseball team, despite having all the right gear. A major supplier of advanced composite materials, Hexcel is the stalwart of the aerospace sector—just sort of hanging around, waiting for its moment. And, folks, its day will come. But you’ll have to be patient, like the adult waiting for an email reply that never arrives. If you jump in now while folks are too busy complaining about airplane delays and carbon fiber demand to notice, you might just find yourself sitting pretty down the line.

So, why is Hexcel the unpopular kid at the lunch table?

The issue boils down to a lackluster aftermarket demand for Hexcel’s carbon fiber products. Any little hiccup at its major clients—Airbus and Boeing—seems to hit Hexcel harder than a poorly timed pun at a family gathering. For instance, a hefty 40% of Hexcel’s anticipated sales for 2024 are reliant on Airbus and its network, with another 15% tied to Boeing. When production outlooks drop like a bad joke, Hexcel feels the sting.

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Last year, both aircraft manufacturers suffered setbacks like a sitcom plot twist no one sees coming. Airbus has already cut its 2025 predictions, particularly for the composite-heavy A350—a plane that, by the way, carries a price tag of up to $5 million per shipset. Not exactly chump change.

Unlike other suppliers who find comfort in their aftermarket revenue (which generally flows nicely with new airplane rollouts), Hexcel is standing alone, waiting for a lifeboat in a crowded lifeboat situation. They ramped up for expected new deliveries last year, only to find themselves staring at empty chairs. Let’s just say, margins are taking a bit of a hit here.

Wall Street seems to have picked its stance; the forecast suggests Hexcel’s sales will barely nudge this year, and earnings per share are set to plummet from $2.03 in 2024 to $1.87 in 2025. It’s hardly a standing ovation.

The plot thickens: Why Hexcel might turn the tide

Now, here’s a thought: perhaps we shouldn’t judge a stock solely on its past performance or what it’s doing right now, especially in an industry as cyclical as aerospace. It’s like holding a grudge against someone for recycling paper incorrectly—they might just need a little time to get it together. And guess what? The commercial aerospace supply chain is looking a tad more optimistic, and two trends might just save Hexcel’s skin.

Positive signs from the aerospace end markets

Firstly, CEO Tom Gentile has hinted—like a friend casually mentioning a great restaurant—that things are looking up. “We are encouraged by the more positive tones and progress conveyed by the commercial airframe and engine OEMs in recent months.” Well, wouldn’t you know it? Engine manufacturer GE Aerospace has reported a 38% uptick in LEAP engine deliveries for the second quarter. That’s right; they’re on track to improve even further in 2025.

Then there’s RTX, with CEO Chris Calio saying he’s optimistic about their Pratt & Whitney division picking up steam. It seems Boeing is finding some stability too. Calio said, “We are seeing stability in the rates at Boeing.” Stability—sounds great, right? Almost as comforting as a well-placed toilet roll!

This GE Aerospace and RTX news is especially vital for Airbus, considering their previously stalled delivery timelines due to engine shortages. It’s almost like watching two friends argue over who gets the last slice of pizza. Boring until it gets spicy.

Long-term growth prospects that make you say “Hmm”

Hexcel’s growth potential can be likened to comparing how often you clear your browser cache with how often your friend misplaces their car keys. As depicted in the table below, aircraft production rates by major customers reveal a scenario primed for recovery.

Manufacturer Aircraft Current Stated Aim
Airbus A350 21 deliveries in the first half, at a rate of just over 3/month 12/month in 2028
Airbus A320neo 232 deliveries in the first half, at a rate of nearly 39/month 75/month in 2027
Boeing 787 37 deliveries in the first half at a rate of just over 6/month 10/month in 2026
Boeing 737MAX 42 in June, and plans to apply to the FAA to remove a 38/month production cap 52/month
Airbus A330neo 12 deliveries in the first half at a rate of 2/month 4/month in 2024
Airbus A220 41 deliveries in the first half, at a rate of nearly 7 a month 14/month in 2026

Should you buy the stock?

Eventually, they’ll crank up those aircraft deliveries, and as that unfolds, Hexcel’s sales and margins should follow suit. Oh, and every new generation of aircraft tends to come with a larger allocation of composites, increasing Hexcel’s shipset value opportunities, too. So what’s not to like?

With the encouraging news from both Boeing and the engine manufacturers—and the prospect of an upswing for Airbus—Hexcel jumps to the forefront as an enticing option for long-term investors. It could end up being a rather rewarding decision. But remember, patience is key—because investing, much like waiting for a table at a crowded restaurant, can be a real test of your nerves. 🍕

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2025-07-30 10:27