Apple (AAPL) shares jittered in the morning light as the company rolled its latest iPhones into the showroom, but the real tremor is in the price tag. I approach this as an investor with the stomach of a streetwise gambler: the iPhone 17 Pro now starts at $1,099 in the U.S.-a clean $100 leap from last year’s Pro entry. It’s not a mere bump; it’s a lever designed to lift average selling prices if the Pro connoisseurs line up for the best cameras and speed and refuse to blink. The price ring, not a rumor, is where the story begins.
Apple’s iPhone business has already regained momentum, and I’m watching the macro-movements with a furrowed brow. In the quarter ended Jun. 28, Apple posted a revenue record for the fiscal third quarter, with double-digit iPhone growth and services hitting all-time highs. Management highlighted growth across every region and boasted an installed base at a new peak-a condition that matters when price discipline meets demand discipline in a product cycle.
Recent results point to a healthier iPhone backdrop
The core engine is humming again. Revenue rose to $94.0 billion, up 10% year over year, while iPhone revenue climbed 13% to $44.6 billion from $39.3 billion a year ago. Services pulled in $27.4 billion, a record for the June quarter. And the EPS figure zipped up 12% year over year. The mix still shows iPhone doing the heavy lifting while Services compounds on a larger base.
Tim Cook captured the mood in the fiscal third-quarter release: “Today Apple is proud to report a June quarter revenue record with double-digit growth in iPhone, Mac and services and growth around the world, in every geographic segment.” That line, paired with a CFO-affirmed all-time-high installed base, underscores momentum as the new models arrive later this month-and as an investor I hear the drums of opportunity.
Valuation reflects high expectations. As of Tuesday’s close, AAPL traded in the mid-30s on a trailing P/E and boasted a market cap around $3.5 trillion. Premium multiples require sustained growth, so the iPhone lineup must keep delivering while services extend their reach for the stock to stay in the premium league-the risk-reward dance is delicate.
A Pro price bump and a new Air could lift iPhone revenue
The fall’s most consequential move may be the simplest: Apple nudged the iPhone 17 Pro starting price to $1,099 from $999. Even before any unit gains, that change nudges the average selling price higher, especially if the Pro line continues to attract the enthusiasts chasing the best cameras and performance. The 17 Pro also doubles entry storage to 256GB, supporting the higher price while preserving revenue recognition.
And then the iPhone Air-thinnest yet, titanium frame, Ceramic Shield 2 front and back-promising greater scratch and crack resistance. Priced below Pro at $999, Air offers a sleeker, tougher design that should appeal to mainstream upgraders who’ve waited. Put together with iPhone 17, this broadens the ladder for buyers and could support stronger unit sales and richer configurations. Preorders begin Friday, with availability next week.
These product dynamics align with Apple’s late-July material: iPhone is growing again, Services is setting records, and the installed base is larger than ever. A higher Pro entry price, a compelling non-Pro option in Air, plus the usual trade-in and carrier promos could push iPhone revenue higher in fiscal 2026-potentially double-digit-if Pro demand stays healthy and mainstream upgrades accelerate. Risks are real: price sensitivity at the high end, macro softness in key regions, and fierce competition. Yet Apple’s scale, brand gravity, and a rapidly expanding Services business provide ballast as the storm swirls.
In short, Apple has made its crown jewels more valuable-and more expensive-while tossing in a tougher, lighter Air at a sub-Pro price. If that mix drives a stronger Pro skew and steady upgrades, ASP and total iPhone revenue should rise in the next year. With Services already peaking and the installed base widening, the stock could maintain a premium valuation as earnings surge. The math looks nontrivial but not impossible, which is exactly the kind of risk-reward recipe I gamble on every quarter. 📈
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2025-09-11 14:15