Right. Intel. It’s been… a thing. A whole thing. Last year it rather took off, didn’t it? Doubled in value, which, let’s be honest, is a bit intimidating. Like a particularly energetic puppy. It hit $54.60 in January, which sounded good, very responsible. Now it’s down 18%. Which, naturally, is where I started paying attention. It’s always the dips, isn’t it? Like a moth to a slightly singed flame.
Everyone’s terribly excited about its foundry business and the AI potential. AI. It’s the new black, apparently. But I’m starting to wonder if all this optimism is… priced in. It’s like going to a party where everyone’s already had several glasses of champagne. Is there any fun left? Or is it just a lot of slightly slurred pronouncements about disruptive technology?
A List of Concerns (Currently at 17)
The thing is, a good year on the markets doesn’t automatically equal a solid investment. It just means it had a good year. Which is nice, but not exactly reassuring. Everyone’s hoping Intel will become the AI chip king of the US. It’s a lovely dream. But getting investments from the government and even Nvidia (who are, let’s face it, rather good at this chip business) isn’t the same as actually being a chip king. It’s like getting a lovely gift certificate for a spa day. It’s nice to have, but it doesn’t magically give you a facial.
What actually matters are the numbers. Cold, hard, slightly depressing numbers. And Intel’s most recent ones, back in January, weren’t exactly dazzling. Revenue was down 4%. Not ideal. The foundry operations did manage a 4% increase, which is… something. But then there’s the profitability. Or rather, the distinct lack of it. A $2.5 billion operating loss. Larger than last year’s $2.2 billion loss. It’s like a hole in your pocket. The money just keeps disappearing.
Expensive Habits
Because of all this excitement, Intel’s stock is… expensive. Very expensive. It’s up 20% already this year. It’s like that dress you really wanted, but it was 50% off and then you realized it didn’t actually suit you. Even based on forward earnings (which are, let’s be honest, just guesses), the stock trades at a multiple of 85. Eighty-five! The average stock on the S&P 500 trades at 22. Twenty-two! It’s a rather significant difference. Investors are paying a massive premium. A premium! It feels… excessive.
There’s just too much optimism baked into the price. It feels like everyone’s already planning the victory parade. I suspect it may have already peaked. It’s been a volatile ride over the last 12 months, and while it’s looked good on paper, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it give back some gains in the coming weeks. It’s like a particularly bouncy balloon. Eventually, it has to come down.
Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24. Will become disciplined long-term investor: Unlikely.
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2026-03-10 00:06