If 98% of Bitcoin Owners Win, Who’s Left Holding the Bag? You’ll Kvetch Over These Charts!

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  • Oy vey! Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss just tripped under 2%. Like the last matzo ball at a Seder, 98% of holders are now in profit. Mazel tov… or is it?
  • If these profit-takers keep up, don’t be shocked if BTC makes a nosedive into $96K territory. It’s like a sale at Bloomingdale’s—everyone runs for the exit at once!

Last month, Bitcoin [BTC] didn’t just rise—it just about pole-vaulted from $76k to $104k. If this keeps up, my grandmother’s gefilte fish will be worth more than Dogecoin.

CryptoQuant looked at the receipts and, what do you know, 98% of you crafty holders are making money. The other 2%? Don’t feel bad; someone’s got to invite us to their pity party.

When everyone is winning, someone’s about to get schlemiel’d

Historically, when your Uncle Morty at the deli counter starts talking about “early market euphoria,” it means it’s time to check your pockets. With everyone rolling in profits, odds are the market is preparing a little slapstick routine.

AMBCrypto points out that Bitcoin’s NUPL has gotten all pumped up, now at 0.56. Most holders are flexing confidence like bodybuilders who still live with their mothers, waiting for those higher prices to finally show up for dinner.

Euphoria’s in the driver’s seat—watch out for oncoming neurosis 🚗💨

So, optimism is high. But you know what else is high? The chance for the punchline to drop. When Supply in Loss gets close to zero, you’re in the last act of the bull market. Or, as my cousin Irving says, “Don’t count your chickens—they’re probably NFTs now.”

Right now, NUPL is waiting for its big 0.75 moment—red light, green light for the bull run climax. Meanwhile, long-term holders are eyeing the buffet table, ready to de-risk, while new folks clutch their BTC stubs, dreaming of riches, hoping this isn’t the world’s most expensive game of musical chairs.

Look, some holders are already eyeing the door, stuffing profits into their pockets like free bagels at a bris.

Exchanges are seeing more deposits than withdrawals—756 BTC moved to exchanges in the last 48 hours. Translation: the selling pressure is rising faster than my blood pressure before Passover.

This is right on cue with every other “whoops” moment. Remember, positive Netflows show up just before the market does the chicken dance off a cliff.

This seems familiar…and not in a good way 🥲

The current pattern has déjà vu written all over it. Will history repeat, or are we stuck in a rerun? Right now, low supply in loss is telling us the market’s mature. (About as mature as my uncle Phil at a wedding open bar.)

If the same shtick plays out, Bitcoin could take a stumble—maybe even trip back to $96k. Cue nervous laughter.

Still, the big drop usually comes weeks after supply in loss collapses, so Bitcoin might just stick the landing and try another shot at $106K. Like that time it bounced off $106K and did a pratfall straight to $109k in January 2025. Timing is everything—they say comedy is all about it.

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2025-05-12 07:17