Hidden Lake & The Upstart Bloom

by

February’s chill still clung to the markets, yet a curious stirring occurred. Hidden Lake Asset Management, a name whispered among those who watch the currents of capital, disclosed a position in Upstart Holdings. Not a mere ripple, mind you, but a deliberate cast of line, a claiming of stake in a field yet to fully flower.

A Seed Takes Root

The filing, dated the 17th, reveals an acquisition of 316,586 shares, translating to roughly $13.84 million. A sum that, in the grand ledger of things, is not colossal. But it’s the direction of the wind that matters, isn’t it? The investment represents 3.5% of Hidden Lake’s managed assets—a considered weighting, a deliberate tilt of the scales. A stake, not a throwaway gamble.

The Landscape of Holdings

To understand Hidden Lake is to map their terrain. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF, that broad, encompassing plain, still anchors their portfolio – $204.58 million, a comforting expanse. Amazon and a few solid structures of established industry follow. But Upstart, this fledgling venture, has swiftly taken root, ascending to become their fifth-largest holding. A curious bloom in a carefully cultivated garden.

  • NYSEMKT: SPY: $204.58 million (52% of AUM)
  • NASDAQ: AMZN: $25.85 million (6.5% of AUM)
  • NYSE: SE: $17.59 million (4.4% of AUM)
  • NASDAQ: NVDA $16.09 million (4.1% of AUM)
  • NASDAQ: UPST: $13.84 million (3.5% of AUM)

The market, as it always does, offered a stark counterpoint. Upstart’s share price, at $31.97, bore the scars of a recent winter—down 61.2% year-over-year. A wounded thing, perhaps, but with a stubborn resilience. The S&P 500, in comparison, felt distant, a sunlit plateau beyond a shadowed valley. Alpha versus the benchmark? A stark (71.13) points. The numbers speak, but they rarely sing.

A Portrait of the Company

Upstart, at its core, is a platform—a conduit between those who seek credit and those who offer it. It leverages the currents of artificial intelligence, attempting to discern risk with a precision that traditional methods often lack. Revenue for the trailing twelve months reached $1.04 billion, a respectable yield. Net income, at $53.60 million, suggests a budding maturity. Market capitalization, at $3.14 billion, marks it as a significant, though still evolving, presence.

Metric Value
Revenue (TTM) $1.04 billion
Net income (TTM) $53.60 million
Market capitalization $3.14 billion
Price (as of market close February 17, 2026) $31.97

It’s a world of algorithms and data streams, of course. But beneath the surface, it’s still about people—about their hopes, their needs, their vulnerabilities. Upstart aims to connect them with opportunity, to offer a path forward. A noble ambition, even in the cold calculus of finance.

The Echo of Disruption

For decades, Fair Isaac Corporation—FICO—held sway over this landscape. Their scoring system, a rigid edifice built in 1989, became the gatekeeper of credit. But time, as it always does, erodes even the most formidable structures. The market, stifled by inertia, was ripe for a challenge. A new spring thaw was needed.

Upstart, with its agile platform and data-driven approach, represents that thaw. It’s a gamble, certainly. The stock, down 92% from its 2021 peak, bears the weight of recent failures. But revenue rose 64% in 2025. A flicker of life in the shadowed undergrowth. The potential for recovery, however fragile, is there.

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Hidden Lake, in its acquisition, seems to recognize this. It’s not simply a bet on a company; it’s a recognition of a shifting tide. A belief that the old guard is faltering, and that a new generation of innovators is poised to rise. A quiet confidence, whispered on the wind.

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2026-02-19 00:13