GM: $200 by 2030? (Probably)

Right then. Let’s talk about General Motors (GM +8.75%). Specifically, let’s discuss the utterly improbable, yet statistically non-zero, possibility of its stock price reaching $200 by the end of 2030. This requires, as any reasonably attentive calculator will confirm, an increase of approximately 130% from its current valuation, or about 18% annually. Which, when you consider the sheer, baffling complexity of the global automotive industry, is… well, let’s just say it’s not entirely impossible. (Though, frankly, very little is impossible, given enough time, quantum fluctuations, and a sufficiently motivated spacefaring species.)

Currently, the market seems to be valuing GM at roughly seven times forward earnings. Seven! It’s a curiously precise number, isn’t it? As if some cosmic accountant decided that was the appropriate multiple. (One wonders what their accounting principles are. Do they factor in the heat death of the universe? The probability of alien intervention? These things should be included, surely.) Despite this, and despite consistently strong results, relentless share buybacks (which, let’s be honest, are just a company taking money from one pocket and putting it in another, but with slightly better tax implications), and expectations of continued growth, the stock remains… understated. One could argue it should be at $200 now, but let’s be reasonable. A five-year horizon seems… achievable. (Assuming, of course, that the laws of physics remain largely intact.)

What it will take to reach $200

Several factors could nudge GM towards this improbable target, even if the market continues to apply a single-digit P/E multiple. It’s a bit like trying to steer an ocean liner with a teaspoon, but let’s explore the possibilities:

First, the share buybacks. GM’s recent authorization should reduce the outstanding share count by roughly 8% this year. Continue that at a similar rate through 2030, and you’re looking at a one-third reduction in shares. This, in turn, boosts the stock price. It’s a bit like dividing a cake among fewer people. Everyone gets a bigger slice. (Though, naturally, the cake itself must remain sufficiently substantial.)
Second, the electric vehicle situation. GM has adjusted its EV capacity in response to market realities, but EVs remain unprofitable for now. However, CEO Mary Barra believes profitability is closer than many suspect, even without government incentives. This is encouraging. (Though one can’t help but wonder if the government incentives were simply a cleverly disguised attempt to manipulate the stock market. It’s a thought.)
Third, and perhaps most intriguingly, the software revenue. Services like OnStar and Super Cruise are generating impressive deferred revenue—expected to grow 40% to $7.5 billion this year. And with eyes-off self-driving on the horizon, this could be just the beginning. Unlike vehicle sales, this is high-margin revenue. It’s the difference between selling a widget and selling the idea of a widget. (And everyone knows ideas are far more valuable. Especially if they involve self-driving cars. It’s the future, you see.)

Of course, there’s always the possibility of things going horribly wrong. The auto industry is notoriously cyclical. A recession could send sales and profits plummeting. However, GM proved surprisingly resilient during the pandemic and the 2022 inflation surge. And all signs currently point towards continued growth. So, while the probability of GM reaching $200 by 2030 isn’t exactly 100% (nothing ever is, really), it’s certainly not zero. Therefore, I’m predicting it will happen. And if it does, well, that will be… interesting. (Though, frankly, the universe is full of interesting things. It’s just a matter of paying attention.)

2026-01-28 13:52

What it will take to reach $200

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