GEO Group: A Quarter in the Life

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Right. So, another day, another stock to dissect. It’s like a particularly stressful dating life – you think you’ve found a keeper, then suddenly it’s down 40% and you’re questioning all your life choices. Today’s subject: The GEO Group (GEO 15.10%). Honestly, the name alone feels… imposing. Anyway, Hodges Capital Management Inc. just offloaded 401,146 shares – roughly $6.69 million worth, based on the quarterly average. Which, let’s be real, is a lot of money. A lot.

What Happened (Or, My Attempts to Understand)

Apparently, Hodges Capital decided to trim their GEO holdings during the last quarter of 2025. A $6.69 million reduction. It’s funny, isn’t it? You spend hours researching, building a thesis, and then someone just…sells. It makes you feel a bit redundant. The fund’s total position dipped by $10.64 million, factoring in both the sale and, naturally, the relentless march of market forces. It’s like trying to hold onto sand.

What Else To Know (Or, My Top Holdings List – It’s a Work in Progress)

  • NASDAQ:NVDA: $39.60 million (3.4% of AUM) – Still holding strong. Fingers crossed.
  • NYSE:SN: $34.20 million (3.0% of AUM) – Solid, dependable. Like a good pair of shoes.
  • NASDAQ:WULF: $32.94 million (2.9% of AUM) – A bit… volatile. Requires constant monitoring.
  • NYSE:CLF: $30.55 million (2.7% of AUM) – Unexciting, but reliable. Like a sensible cardigan.
  • NYSE:TPL: $29.95 million (2.6% of AUM) – Hopeful. Potential. Could go either way.

As of February 10th, GEO was trading at $16.11. Which, let’s be honest, is a bit… bruised. Down over 40% in a year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is merrily chugging along with a roughly 14% gain. It’s enough to make you question your entire investment strategy. And maybe order another coffee.

Company Overview (The Cliff Notes Version)

Metric Value
Revenue (TTM) $2.53 billion
Net income (TTM) $238.10 million
Price (as of market close February 10, 2026) $16.11
1-year price change (41.55%)

Company Snapshot (Or, What They Actually Do)

  • The GEO Group manages secure facilities, offers electronic monitoring, and runs reentry programs. Basically, they’re in the business of… well, you get the picture.
  • They get most of their revenue from government contracts for facility management and supervision. A lot of bureaucracy, I imagine.
  • They serve federal, state, and local governments in the US and a few other places. Lots of paperwork.

GEO Group is a leading provider of secure facility management and community reentry services. They operate in the US, Australia, and South Africa. They offer a diversified portfolio of services, including electronic monitoring and evidence-based rehabilitation. Sounds… comprehensive. They aim to deliver cost-effective, compliant services to government clients. Which is a nice ambition, isn’t it?

What This Transaction Means for Investors (Or, My Existential Crisis)

GEO stock is down. A lot. Even though earnings have rebounded and they’ve secured new contracts with ICE, expanding bed capacity to around 26,000. It’s been a bit of a controversial company, caught in the crosshairs of political debates. So, this $6.7 million reduction might be more about risk management than a fundamental judgment on the company. Hodges Capital still holds a nearly $9 million stake, after all. Which is… something.

In the fourth quarter, GEO posted $707.7 million in revenue and $0.23 in diluted EPS, up from $0.11 a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA reached $126 million (from $108 million). They repurchased $90.6 million of stock in 2025. They’re guiding for 2026 net income of $0.99 to $1.07 per share and up to $510 million in adjusted EBITDA. Numbers. So many numbers.

For long-term investors, the real story is leverage and execution. Net debt is around $1.5 billion. They’re targeting 2.8x to 3.0x net leverage in 2026. If occupancy and contract wins hold up, cash flow could improve. But if policy shifts again… volatility will follow. This isn’t just an earnings story. It’s a balance sheet and political risk story. Which is exhausting, frankly.

Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24. Will become disciplined long-term investor: Unlikely.

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2026-02-12 23:13