GE Vernova: Another Turn of the Wheel

GE Vernova. They used to build things. Now they mostly build expectations. And, apparently, gas turbines. Funny how it works. The stock is going up, they say. So it goes.

The AI Boom and the Relentless Need for Electricity

The company is enjoying a bit of a moment. A surge, even. Up 11.1% in January, 12.9% year-to-date, and over 100% in the last twelve months. It’s a remarkable turnaround, considering they were once the problematic bits of the old General Electric. Back then, everyone worried about solar and wind. A clean future, they called it. But somebody still had to keep the lights on, didn’t they?

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Turns out, renewable energy isn’t always…reliable. And moving those wind turbine blades around? A logistical nightmare. Plus, all these data centers, humming away, demanding power. They need juice. A lot of it. And for now, gas turbines seem to be the answer. It’s not a solution, mind you, just a continuation. A temporary reprieve. So it goes.

Power Segment 2022 2023 2024 2025
Gas Turbine Orders (GW) 9.8 9.5 20.2 29.8

The orders are piling up. 33 gigawatts at the end of 2024, 40 gigawatts at the end of 2025. But that’s just the beginning. Now they’re getting slot reservation agreements. People are paying up front to secure production slots. 29 gigawatts at the end of 2024, 43 gigawatts at the end of 2025. It’s like people are preparing for an energy crisis. Which, of course, we are. The CEO, Scott Strazik, expects around 100 gigawatts under contract in 2026. A comforting number, if you ignore the underlying implications. So it goes.

What Comes Next?

More gas turbine orders. Naturally. But it’s not just about the equipment. It’s about the services. Once those turbines are installed, they need maintaining. A steady stream of high-margin revenue. A beautiful thing, really. A predictable cycle of profit. The electrification segment is booming too. Connecting everything to the grid. Upgrading infrastructure. Powering those data centers. It’s all connected, isn’t it? So it goes.

And then there’s the wind power business. They’re winding down those loss-making offshore contracts. Switching to profitable onshore contracts. A bit of damage control. A necessary adjustment. They’re not fixing the problem, just shifting the costs. But who’s counting? The management is confident they can more than double earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization, from $5.3 billion in 2026 to $11.2 billion by 2028. A bold prediction. A hopeful delusion. So it goes.

The stock is soaring, they say. And so it does. A temporary upward blip in a long, slow descent. But for now, it’s enough. Enough to keep the wheel turning. Enough to keep the lights on. For a little while longer, at least.

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2026-02-07 16:02