The matter of Garmin (GRMN +16.52%) shares, their inexplicable levitation today, requires a certain documentation. It is not, perhaps, a cause for celebration, but rather an observation of a phenomenon – a surge, a swelling, following the company’s declaration of a year concluded with figures deemed, by some accounting principle, ‘record.’ The devices, these small, insistent rectangles and bands that dictate direction and measure exertion, have apparently performed adequately. Adequacy, it seems, is now sufficient to warrant such disproportionate response.
The shares, initially agitated, climbed over eighteen percent before settling, a gesture of temporary compliance, to a sixteen-and-four-tenths percent increase as of 9:51 a.m. Eastern Time. One wonders at the precision of these measurements, the relentless tracking of fractions of percentages, as if a fraction of a percentage could alter the fundamental, unyielding nature of things.
The Illusion of Cash and Dividends
Revenue for the fourth quarter experienced a sixteen-and-a-half percent increase, a figure which, when aggregated with the preceding quarters, resulted in a fifteen percent increase for the entire year. This exceeded the initial projection of nine percent, a discrepancy that now necessitates a revised projection of nine percent for the coming year. The circularity of this logic is, admittedly, unsettling. To overperform, then to predict the same modest growth, suggests a deliberate obfuscation, a lowering of expectations to ensure future compliance with predetermined, unstated parameters. It is a system designed not for growth, but for control.
The ‘fitness’ category, a designation that feels increasingly hollow, led the revenue increase at forty-two percent. All segments, it is reported, are ‘doing well,’ a phrase devoid of meaning, a bureaucratic euphemism for ‘functioning within acceptable limits.’ The enthusiasm, therefore, is not for innovation or progress, but for the continued, predictable operation of a system. Even with this inexplicable jump in share price, the price-to-earnings ratio, calculated against expectations for 2026, remains below twenty-seven. If, as is increasingly suspected, management consistently underestimates its own performance, this ratio will continue to diminish, a slow, inevitable descent into…what, precisely, remains unclear.
Investors, it appears, are encouraged to exercise ‘patience,’ to passively accept incremental gains in the form of dividends. A seventeen percent increase in the dividend is recommended, a small concession offered to appease the restless masses. A new share repurchase authorization, amounting to five hundred million dollars, has been established, replacing the previous, inadequate plan. The company possesses, furthermore, a substantial cash reserve – over four billion dollars – and is, inexplicably, free of debt. This fortress-like balance sheet, while reassuring, feels less like strength and more like a preparation for an unspecified, inevitable siege.
It is, therefore, not difficult to understand the momentary surge in share price. It is, however, difficult to understand what this surge signifies, what purpose it serves, or where it will ultimately lead. It is merely another data point in a vast, incomprehensible system, a fleeting anomaly in the relentless, predictable march of…something.
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2026-02-18 18:25