Garmin (GRMN +5.54%) reports earnings next Wednesday, and honestly, the whole thing fills me with a low-grade dread usually reserved for family gatherings. It’s not the numbers themselves, though those are, admittedly, impressive. It’s the anticipation of the numbers. The breathless pronouncements. The sudden, inexplicable surges and dips that turn perfectly rational people into…well, people who talk to their brokerage accounts.
When I think of Garmin, I picture my Uncle Barry, attempting to navigate a golf course using a handheld GPS. He’d spend more time arguing with the device than actually playing, convinced it was deliberately misleading him. It turns out Garmin does a lot more than torment retired uncles. They’re into aviation, marine electronics, and apparently, equipping BMWs with things I don’t even want to think about. And, yes, they still make fitness trackers, which is what most of us associate them with. It’s a surprisingly diverse portfolio, like discovering your quiet neighbor moonlights as a competitive lumberjack.
Last year, they raked in $6.3 billion. Six point three billion. Every single division hit a record. It feels…excessive. Like they’re showing off. Operating income jumped 46%. I tried explaining this to my mother, who still thinks a good stock is one that pays for itself in dividends, and she just nodded and asked if it made toasters. The fitness segment, predictably, is a monster. Apparently, we’re all obsessed with quantifying our misery. Third quarter revenue jumped 30%. The outdoor segment, their biggest, pulled in $498 million, though it dipped a bit. It’s always something, isn’t it? A minor setback to remind you that nothing is ever truly perfect.
They’re now projecting $7.1 billion for the full year. It’s a lot of money. It makes me vaguely uncomfortable. I started calculating how many toasters that would buy, but the numbers became…disturbing.
The February 18 Setup
Wall Street is expecting $2.39 per share on revenue of $2.01 billion. A 10.4% increase year-over-year. The stock is currently around $205, well below its 52-week high of $261.69. And they pay a dividend of $3.60 annually, which, let’s be honest, won’t buy you much these days. Still, it’s a gesture. A small acknowledgment that they appreciate your participation in this elaborate game.
Why I’d Be Careful Here
Buying a stock right before earnings is like playing Russian roulette with your portfolio. Last October, Garmin dropped 11.5% after missing revenue estimates by just 1.1%. One point one percent. It was a massacre. The numbers were perfectly fine, but the market, apparently, demands perfection. It’s exhausting. It’s like dating someone who nitpicks your socks.
That’s the risk you take next week. Beat expectations, and the stock could pop. Miss by even a sliver, and you’re staring at an immediate 10% haircut. My cousin, a day trader, thrives on this chaos. He calls it “opportunity.” I call it “a waste of perfectly good anxiety.”
The stock is down roughly 22% from its highs, so some bad news might already be baked in. But there are no guarantees. The market is a fickle beast. It operates on emotion, rumor, and the occasional, inexplicable meme.
A price-to-earnings ratio of 23 on a company growing earnings at 11% isn’t cheap, but it’s not outrageous either. Investors are paying a fair price for consistent growth, not an inflated premium based on hype. It’s…reasonable. Which, in the current climate, feels almost revolutionary.
My honest advice? Don’t try to time earnings. If Garmin fits your portfolio and you plan to hold for three to five years, next week’s report is just one data point. Buy a partial position now if the valuation appeals to you, keep some cash on the side, and add more if the stock dips after the report. That way, you’re in the game without betting everything on one morning. The best investors I follow don’t gamble on earnings dates. They buy great businesses at fair prices and let time do the heavy lifting. And, occasionally, they ignore the whole thing and go for a walk. It’s surprisingly effective.
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2026-02-13 23:22