Right. Ford. (F +1.95%). It had a good year, 2025. A 42% return. Which, let’s be honest, is a bit… distracting. Like finding a really nice pair of shoes when you’re supposed to be sorting out your pension. And so far, 2026 is… okay. Not collapsing in flames, which is always a win. It’s got me thinking. Where will this whole Ford situation be in five years? It’s the kind of question that keeps me up at night, alongside wondering if I remembered to turn off the oven and whether my houseplants secretly judge me.
Things I’ve realised today: 1. The car industry is… mature. That’s a polite way of saying it’s not exactly brimming with explosive growth. In January 2026, they sold 15.4 million vehicles. Which is… the same number as in 1988. 1988! I was wearing leg warmers and believing everything on MTV. It doesn’t bode well. It’s like trying to squeeze extra life out of a tube of toothpaste. You can do it, but it’s a bit sad, really.
So, high growth isn’t happening. Ford’s revenue has crept up by a mere 2.2% a year over the last decade. And analysts predict… another 2%. It’s… underwhelming. And even worse, they don’t seem able to make sales grow faster than profits. Net income has only risen 11% in ten years. It’s like being on a very slow treadmill. A lot of effort, not a lot of visible progress. I suspect investors won’t be exactly throwing confetti. It’s a rather sober outlook, isn’t it?
The Electric Dream (and its Associated Headaches)
Of course, everyone’s talking about electric vehicles. Ford is throwing money at it, like I throw money at online shopping when I’m stressed. But it’s not exactly going swimmingly. They took a $15.5 billion charge in Q4. A charge! It sounds so… final. They’re now focusing on hybrids and cheaper EVs. Apparently, they’re hoping to reach breakeven on Model e by 2029. 2029! That’s a lot of hoping. Sherry House, the CFO, said it on the earnings call. She sounds… optimistic. Or possibly exhausted. It’s hard to tell.
They predict half of their global volume will be hybrids or EVs by 2030. Which is a huge shift from 86% internal combustion in 2025. It’s a bit like deciding to become a vegan overnight. Ambitious. Possibly unsustainable. Definitely requiring a lot of planning and a strong stomach.
The Valuation: A Glimmer of Hope (Maybe)
Okay, there’s a tiny bit of good news. The stock is cheap. A forward P/E ratio of 9.8. Less than half the S&P 500. And a dividend yield of 4.29%. It’s… tempting. Like a really good sale on shoes. I’m trying to be rational, I am. It could provide a positive return over the next five years. But, and it’s a big but, because Ford can’t sustainably grow earnings, I’d be shocked if it outperforms the broader market. Shocked. And honestly, I’m rarely shocked anymore. It takes a lot to shock me these days.
Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 0. Hours Spent Watching Stock Charts: 7. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 18. Number of Times I’ve Considered Becoming a Beekeeper: 3. It’s a process, okay? A process.
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2026-02-16 17:54