EV Wager: Rivian’s Slightly Less Perilous Path

One observes, with a certain weariness, the current state of the electric vehicle market. A veritable scrum, isn’t it? Sales figures, globally, are up a rather vulgar 21% for 2025, with Europe leading the charge and China, naturally, dominating the proceedings. One almost expects a small flag to be planted. America, however, is proving…difficult. A dip of 1% in sales, owing to the regrettable expiration of tax credits, and the rather dramatic dethroning of Tesla by BYD. BYD, mind you, with Geely snapping at their heels. The vulgarity of it all!

So, the question arises: should one allocate capital to Rivian or Nio? A simple decision, one might think. But simplicity, darling, is rarely a virtue.

A Tale of Two Markets, Both Rather Tedious

Nio’s difficulties aren’t with the vehicles themselves. Perfectly adequate, really. Aesthetically pleasing, even. The eT5 wagon is…tolerable. And the battery swap network is a clever conceit, alleviating the range anxiety that plagues these contraptions. No, the problem lies with the Chinese market itself. It’s maturing, consolidating. EVs now constitute the majority of new car sales, which rather takes the bloom off the rose, doesn’t it?

One examines the market share figures. Nio isn’t even in the top ten. BYD leads, of course, with a commanding 26%, followed by Geely at a respectable 8.8%. Even Tesla manages to outsell Nio on its own turf, securing fourth place with 4.4%. The market is closing in, like a particularly unwelcome houseguest. One anticipates a wave of acquisitions – the larger players swallowing the smaller ones, much as General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler did in the American 1950s and 60s. A rather predictable pattern, really.

Nio, at this juncture, resembles AMC more than Ford. The Javelin was a perfectly serviceable automobile, but it couldn’t prevent AMC from being absorbed by Chrysler in 1987. A cautionary tale, wouldn’t you agree? And the government’s decision to roll back EV subsidies in its latest five-year plan? A most inconvenient development.

Vehicle sales are up 15% year-over-year, but net losses remain alarmingly high – $488.9 million. They are reducing those losses, admittedly, by about 30% per quarter, but it’s hardly a breakneck pace. Most of their rivals have long since achieved profitability. One suspects they’re burning through capital at an alarming rate. A distinctly precarious situation.

So, despite operating in the world’s largest EV market, Nio finds itself increasingly…exposed. Now, let us turn our attention to Rivian. Why is it any different?

A Wide-Open Frontier, Though Still Rather Damp

The American market, you see, is significantly more…open. Tesla dominates, naturally, selling six times as many cars as General Motors’ Chevrolet. But beyond Tesla, the field is…less crowded. Rivian, remarkably, is on the list of America’s top sellers – sixth place, to be precise, outselling Honda, Volkswagen, and GMC. A most encouraging sign. It’s swimming in a rather large pond, certainly, but with considerably fewer sharks.

Rivian hasn’t yet achieved net profitability, but it’s approaching it at a far more acceptable pace than Nio. Sales dipped in the fourth quarter of 2025, owing to the aforementioned tax credit expiration, but revenue grew 8% for the year as a whole. They even achieved gross profitability, a $1.3 billion improvement over the previous year. Net losses, while still substantial at $3.6 billion, are considerably lower than the $4.7 billion recorded in 2024.

One suspects that American EV manufacturers haven’t received the same level of government support as their Chinese counterparts. Even without the tax credit, Rivian managed to sell 9,745 cars in the fourth quarter. A slight decline, yes, but hardly a catastrophe.

And the outlook is improving. Rivian is slated to release the R2 SUV in March, a more affordable model starting at $45,000 – below the average new car cost in America. A shrewd move, one might add.

Rivian remains a speculative venture, of course. But it possesses a significantly greater opportunity than Nio. If one is seeking a rather daring EV play, Rivian appears, at this juncture, to be the slightly less perilous option. A small victory, perhaps, but one takes what one can get.

2026-02-16 10:43

A Tale of Two Markets, Both Rather Tedious

A Wide-Open Frontier, Though Still Rather Damp

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