Ethereum’s Daring Dance: Will It Leap to $4.1K or Trip Over Its Own Feet?

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Key takeaways:

  • Ethereum has gallantly reclaimed a key level that has historically preceded rallies of over 100% and triggered past altseasons. Quite the overachiever, isn’t it? 🎩

  • Should Bitcoin decide to play nice and repeat its post-halving drop, the altcoin market cap could surge toward a staggering $15 trillion. That’s a lot of zeros! 💰

  • Despite all the bullish signals, ETH remains as fragile as a teacup in a bullring, with $123 billion in supply perilously close to cost basis, at risk of flipping into a loss. Oh dear! 😱

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has once again donned its superhero cape, reclaiming a key technical level that has historically heralded sharp price gains and marked the onset of an “altseason” across multiple market cycles in the last five years. Talk about a comeback! 🦸‍♂️

ETH price can double in the coming months

The level in question is the mid-line (approximately $2,600) of the Gaussian Channel—a moving average-based band that tracks long-term momentum—on the 2-week chart. Quite the mouthful, isn’t it? 📈

In the grand spectacle of 2020-2021, ETH gallantly rallied from a mere $400 to over $4,800 after closing above the Gaussian mid-line. A similar escapade in late 2023 saw ETH leap from below $1,500 to nearly $4,000 within a year. Bravo! 👏

In both instances, ETH quickly advanced toward and broke above the channel’s upper band as momentum built. It’s like watching a well-trained dog perform tricks!

As of May 2025, that upper band sat near $3,200, making it the next key resistance. A breakout above this level could open the path toward the previous cycle high of $4,100 by July. Fingers crossed! 🤞

The next ETH pump may start altseason — analysts

According to market analyst Moustache (yes, you read that right), the ETH price rally may further influence the broader altcoin market to rise alongside, citing the same Gaussian Channel fractal. A mustachioed oracle, if you will! 🥸

The combined market cap of the altcoin market, excluding Ethereum, surged by over 1,400% over a year after Ether’s close above the channel’s midline in July 2020. Quite the party, I must say! 🎉

Similarly, the altcoin market cap gained by more than 200% a year after ETH’s midline breakout in November 2023. It seems the altcoins are having a jolly good time!

The prospect of a 2025 altseason strengthens with a repeating post-Bitcoin-halving pattern. In both 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin dominance dropped sharply around 400 days after the halving, triggering altcoin rallies. A bit of déjà vu, perhaps? 🌀

With the April 2024 halving nearing the same period, a similar decline could occur within the next 100 days. Hold onto your hats, folks!

Analyst Wimar X expects the altcoin market cap to surge toward $15 trillion if the trend repeats. That’s a number that could make even Scrooge McDuck do a double take! 🦆

Ethereum metric warns about potential bull trap

The largest portion of ETH’s market cap—around $123 billion—is held by investors who bought between $2,300 and $2,500, according to onchain data from Glassnode. A precarious position, indeed! ⚖️

If ETH’s price drops even slightly below this range, a large number of holders would find themselves in a pickle, potentially leading to panic selling. Oh, the drama! 🎭

So while ETH is showing technical strength, its support remains as shallow as a puddle unless it can move further away from this cost zone. Let’s hope it finds its footing!

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2025-05-27 18:52