The year 2026 dawns, and the markets, predictably susceptible to the allure of novelty, are currently enamored with artificial intelligence. A surge, they call it. I prefer to think of it as a collective, momentarily suspended disbelief, fuelled by projections—those exquisitely fragile constructions of hope and algorithmic fancy. The past two years, 2024 and 2025, saw a pleasing ascent, largely attributable to this manufactured enthusiasm. Companies, of every stripe and dubious ambition, are now scrambling to drape themselves in the shimmering gauze of ‘AI integration,’ a phrase as hollow as a politician’s promise.
Grand View Research, a firm whose pronouncements I regard with the same cautious amusement I reserve for fortune tellers, estimates a market of $3.5 trillion by 2033. A sum, naturally, presented with the confident air of someone who’s misplaced a decimal point. The implication – that we’re in the ‘early stages’ – is, of course, the standard incantation before any speculative bubble. Against this backdrop of orchestrated optimism, a few companies, momentarily less obscured by the hype, warrant a fleeting, skeptical glance.
Micron Technology: Memory & Mirage
Micron Technology, a name that evokes the microscopic dance of electrons, entered 2026 with a financial profile that, while undeniably robust, is presented with a rather breathless insistence. Revenue growth of 56% to $13.6 billion – a figure that sounds impressive until one considers the sheer volume of silicon required to sustain this illusion of progress. Demand for their DRAM, NAND, and HBM—a trio of acronyms designed to intimidate the uninitiated—outstrips supply, a condition that invariably leads to either inflated prices or, more likely, a frantic, unsustainable scramble for materials. Their HBM output is ‘fully allocated,’ they claim, a phrase that translates, in the language of the market, to ‘we’ve promised more than we can deliver.’
Unlike the cyclical whims of prior memory booms – those brief, shimmering bubbles – this particular iteration is allegedly driven by a ‘multi-year AI infrastructure buildout.’ Goldman Sachs, ever eager to validate the prevailing narrative, estimates $527 billion in AI-related capital expenditures. A sum that, I suspect, will largely benefit the manufacturers of shovels and the purveyors of hype. Each new generation of AI chips, naturally, requires ‘significantly more performance memory’—a convenient justification for endless consumption.
Micron also boasts a ‘disciplined execution,’ a phrase that always sets my teeth on edge. They report a 30% free cash flow margin and reduced debt. Admirable, perhaps, but hardly a guarantor of future prosperity. The stock trades at 8.6 times forward earnings – a ‘modest’ valuation, they claim. A valuation, I would argue, that reflects the inherent fragility of a market built on speculation.
Qualcomm: Beyond the Handset, Into the Haze
Qualcomm, once synonymous with the ubiquitous mobile phone, now presents itself as a ‘diversified AI semiconductor player.’ A rebranding exercise, naturally, designed to escape the inevitable decline of its core market. They report revenue of $44 billion and free cash flow of $12.8 billion. Impressive numbers, certainly, but numbers that mask the inherent risks of diversification. The company possesses the ‘financial flexibility’ to invest in multiple AI-driven markets – a euphemism for spreading its resources thinly across a landscape of unproven technologies.
Qualcomm is ‘well-positioned’ to benefit from the ongoing AI PC upgrade cycle. They plan to commercialize around 150 Snapdragon-powered AI PC designs. A number that sounds suspiciously like a marketing projection. The introduction of the Snapdragon X2 Plus family of processors extends AI PC capabilities to a ‘wider range of price points’ – a transparent attempt to appeal to a broader audience. The automotive segment could be a ‘significant opportunity,’ contributing over $1 billion in revenue. A prospect that, I suspect, is more aspirational than realistic. They’ve also expanded into AI data centers, planning a 200-megawatt deployment. A grandiose gesture, perhaps, designed to distract from their declining core business.
Trading at around 12.8 times forward earnings, Qualcomm stock may prove to be a ‘reasonably valued AI play.’ A claim that, I would argue, is based on a generous interpretation of ‘reasonable’ and a willful disregard for the inherent risks of the market. The illusion, for now, persists.
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2026-01-20 23:52