Energy Transfer: $30 or a Pipeline to Nowhere?

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Energy Transfer (ET +0.38%)… the name itself sounds like a bureaucratic nightmare, doesn’t it? But here we are, staring down the barrel of a 13% rally this year. Thirteen percent! In this market? It’s enough to make a man question the very fabric of reality… or at least, the sanity of anyone still chasing yield. They’re flirting with $19 a unit, and the whispers are getting louder: could this beast actually hit $30? Let’s just say, I’ve seen less volatile situations involving rabid badgers and a crate of mescaline. It’s a long shot, a fever dream… but then again, so was the internet in ’95.

The Reacceleration: Or, How They Kickstarted the Dying Machine

Last year was… sluggish. A polite way of saying it was a near-death experience for their adjusted EBITDA. A measly 3.2% growth rate? In the pipeline game, that’s like admitting defeat. They were coasting on fumes, no acquisitions, a handful of expansion projects… it was a ghost town. But NOW… now things are different. They’re promising a 10% jump. TEN PERCENT! They’re throwing money at projects – the $2.7 billion Hugh Brinson Pipeline, the $5.6 billion Transwestern expansion… it’s a full-blown infrastructure orgy. And the affiliated MLPs are finally waking up, adding fuel to the fire. Oh, and oil prices are, predictably, doing their thing. Rising. Of course. It’s all starting to feel… unsettlingly positive.

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Fuel to Continue Growing: A Pipeline to the Future (Maybe)

They’ve got a backlog of projects stretching out to 2030. 2030! That’s practically a lifetime in the energy sector. They’re talking about expanding gas infrastructure to feed the insatiable hunger of data centers and power plants. It’s a feeding frenzy. And they have the financial flexibility to actually do it. Acquisitions are on the table. They’re sniffing around for deals. The demand for natural gas is accelerating, and they want a piece of the action. Double-digit growth rates? It’s a possibility. A terrifying, exhilarating possibility. But let’s not get carried away. This is still the energy sector, where optimism goes to die.

The Fuel to Hit $30: A Descent into Madness?

Okay, let’s do the math. A 10% annual growth rate, maintaining the current valuation… roughly five years to hit $30. Five years! It sounds… reasonable. Almost too reasonable. But what if the valuation multiple starts to expand? They’re currently trading at a discount compared to their peers – less than nine times forward earnings. The average is above 11x. A little multiple expansion could shave years off the timeline. They could hit $30 within a few years. It’s a gamble, a long shot, a descent into madness… but isn’t that what investing is all about? Chasing the impossible, staring into the abyss, and hoping for the best? I’m not saying it’s a sure thing. I’m just saying… keep your eyes peeled. And maybe, just maybe, stock up on some antacids. You’re going to need them.

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2026-03-07 17:24