Eli Lilly (LLY) has all the charm of a dinner guest who brags about their “challenging year” while sipping champagne. Yes, the stock surged 5% in one day-a party trick!-but don’t let that distract from the clinical setbacks, weak guidance, and tariff tantrums. It’s like applauding someone for stopping a nosebleed during a triathlon.
Year-to-date, shares are down 5% (the S&P 500 laughs from +9%). Yet here we are, dissecting orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 drug that’s somehow both underwhelming and overhyped. If this were a first date, it’d be the guy who shows up late, spills wine on your shirt, then insists he’s “basically a sommelier.”
The weight-loss soap opera continues
Orforglipron’s phase 3 results for non-diabetic patients: a 12.4% weight loss over 72 weeks. Wall Street yawned because Zepbound, Lilly’s injectable, does better. Imagine bringing a 12.4% discount to a Black Friday brawl. The stock plunged. Cry me a river.
Then came the diabetes cohort: 10.5% loss at highest dose. Groundbreaking! Patients dropped 22.9 pounds, which is roughly the weight of a medium dog. The study “met all endpoints,” which sounds like corporate bingo. But hey, regulatory submissions are queued. Progress!
This pill already nailed a diabetes trial focused on A1C levels. Approval next year? Probably. But If oral GLP-1s are so great, why does Zepbound-a injectable-have “ridiculous” sales? Maybe because 12.4% isn’t enough? Or maybe we’re all just terrible at math.
Analysts predict $12.7B annual revenue by 2030. That’s nearly Q2’s entire revenue ($15.6B). Let’s not pretend pills are some miracle. They’re just slightly less annoying. Like choosing between a papercut and a hangnail.
Should you buy this chaos?
Lilly’s the “leader” in weight management, which sounds impressive until you realize it’s a category invented last Tuesday. Zepbound and Mounjaro might hit $62B by 2030-tripling 2023’s $45B. And there’s Retatrutide, a “triple hormone” mimic that’s basically the Tesla of gut peptides. But I’ll believe it when I see it.
The pipeline stretches into oncology, immunology, and neuroscience. Kisunla for Alzheimer’s! Ebglyss for eczema! It’s like a pharmacy aisle exploded. Revenue growth? “Incredibly rapid” for a pharma giant. But the forward P/E of 32? That’s 93% more than the healthcare average. You’re paying a premium for a company that thinks 12.4% weight loss is a headline.
Buy the stock? Not because of orforglipron. Buy because you enjoy riding the rocket ship even if the seatbelt is sticky. 🧵
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2025-09-05 16:03