Eli Lilly: A Spot of Bother, But Nothing a Good Portfolio Can’t Handle

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The weight-loss market, you see, is currently experiencing something of a flurry. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, those titans of therapeutic endeavour, are engaged in a most spirited competition, both boasting pipelines positively brimming with potential. Eli Lilly’s orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 concoction, was looking particularly promising, until a slight hitch – a mere postponement of the FDA’s decision, you understand – caused a bit of a wobble in the share price. A four percent dip, if you please! One couldn’t help but wonder if the market was perhaps overreacting to a situation that, while mildly inconvenient, was hardly a catastrophe.

A Momentary Delay

After sailing through phase 3 trials with a commendable lack of fuss, Eli Lilly had submitted its application for orforglipron in December. The FDA, in a rather sporting gesture, granted the application a voucher allowing for a swift review – a month or two, as opposed to the usual year-long wait. A decision by the end of February seemed entirely reasonable, and investors were, naturally, anticipating a prompt resolution. However, the FDA, in a display of bureaucratic caution, has now extended the review period until April 10th. A dashedly annoying turn of events, what!

The crux of the matter, you see, is that Novo Nordisk has already launched its oral Wegovy. These oral GLP-1s are poised to capture a segment of the market previously inaccessible to those of a needle-averse disposition, or those, perhaps, who find the cold storage requirements of subcutaneous injections a bit of a bother. It’s a matter of convenience, you see, and the modern patient does appreciate a little convenience.

Oral pills, naturally, circumvent these issues. And now, Novo Nordisk has a little extra time to establish itself before Eli Lilly can present its challenger. A bit of a pickle, certainly, but not one that necessitates a wholesale abandonment of reason.

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A Spot of Perspective

One mustn’t forget that Wegovy itself wasn’t approved until 2021, a good two years before Zepbound. Yet, as of the third quarter of last year, Zepbound was actually generating higher sales. The first-mover advantage, while not entirely negligible, is often outweighed by factors such as efficacy, safety, and, dare I say, a touch of good fortune.

Novo Nordisk may have been first to market with an oral GLP-1, but orforglipron demonstrated competitive efficacy, particularly in patients with diabetes – a demographic that often presents a more challenging weight-loss profile. Furthermore, Eli Lilly possesses a most attractive mid- and late-stage pipeline, not only in this therapeutic area, but in several others. A company with options, you see, is a company in a strong position.

Financial results remain robust, the company’s prospects are, shall we say, rather promising, and the stock offers a dividend program that’s not entirely ungenerous. The market’s reaction to the FDA’s slight delay seems, if one is being perfectly honest, a touch excessive. The shares, in my professional opinion, remain a perfectly sound purchase. A spot of bother, perhaps, but nothing a well-managed portfolio can’t handle with aplomb.

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2026-01-24 23:12