Dust & Dividends: A Look at Walmart & Amazon

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There was a time when Walmart stood as a rough-hewn giant in the American landscape, a place where folks could find what they needed, plain and simple. Amazon, then, was a flicker on the horizon, a promise of things delivered to your door. Now, the tables have turned, and Amazon has grown into a behemoth, worth more than twice what Walmart is. It’s a shift, a changing of the guard, and like all such shifts, it leaves a man wondering about the dust settling on the old ways.

Much of Amazon’s heft comes from its cloud business, Amazon Web Services. It’s become the backbone of much of the new world, fueled by the hunger for artificial intelligence. But the market, fickle as a desert wind, has turned wary. Investors fear the $200 billion Amazon plans to spend building out its capacity won’t yield the returns it promises. Meanwhile, Walmart, seen as sheltered from this new tech whirlwind, has climbed. It crossed the trillion-dollar mark this month, a monument to the enduring need for staples, for the things people truly require.

So, a man has to ask himself, which is the better bet? Which one will weather the coming storms?

Walmart: Holding the Line

Walmart is slowly, steadily regaining ground, drawing in the families feeling the pinch of uncertain times. Folks are looking for value, for a place where a dollar still stretches. The company’s revenue grew nearly 5% this past year, a quiet strength in a noisy world. And their online business is blooming, climbing 24% last quarter, a sign they’re adapting, learning to meet folks where they are.

These numbers stand in contrast to Amazon’s, which, while still growing, aren’t quite as robust. Amazon’s physical stores grew just 5%, and their overall e-commerce operations, while considerable, grew at a slower pace. It’s a reminder that even giants can stumble, that growth isn’t guaranteed.

Walmart’s earnings per share and free cash flow are also on the rise, but even here, caution is the watchword. The company’s outlook for the coming year is modest, a gentle climb rather than a soaring leap. They’re a conservative lot, these folks at Walmart, and perhaps the new CEO, John Furner, is playing it safe. Still, trading at 45 times future earnings, there isn’t much room for error. For Walmart’s stock to truly rise, it will need to surprise, to exceed expectations.

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Amazon: Betting on the Future

Amazon’s announcement of that massive $200 billion investment overshadowed even its strong quarterly results. It’s a bold gamble, a wager on the future. While their e-commerce business isn’t growing at the same clip as Walmart’s, it’s built on a much larger foundation. Their advertising business is a bright spot, adding a welcome stream of revenue.

But the real story is Amazon Web Services. That business is booming, growing 24% last quarter. And despite the market’s jitters, it’s already showing a return on investment. This spending, this expansion, is meant to fuel even more growth, to meet the insatiable demand for cloud computing. They have a backlog of $244 billion in contracts, a testament to the trust folks place in their services.

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To be sure, this is a big bet. It will likely push Amazon’s free cash flow into negative territory this year. But the folks at Amazon have a knack for this. They’ve done it before, investing in new facilities, anticipating demand. They understand the signals, the rhythms of the market. And odds are, this will play out as it has in the past, with free cash flow rising to even higher levels in the long run.

For now, the market has handed investors an opportunity. Amazon’s stock is trading at a more reasonable price, around 26 times forward earnings. And while earnings growth may be sluggish this year, it’s expected to accelerate as more AWS capacity comes online. It’s a fair price to pay for a company growing at a healthy pace, expanding its margins. Right now, Amazon’s shares look far more appealing than Walmart’s, a glimpse of a future taking shape.

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2026-02-22 09:53