
Druckenmiller. The name still carries weight. Used to run money for Soros, which is like being a cleaner in a casino – you see a lot, but you don’t own the chips. Now he’s got his own shop, Duquesne Family Office. Closed the first one when the money got too easy. Smart man. You can track what he’s buying, which is like following a ghost – you still don’t know where it’s going. Here are two of his current favorites. Don’t mistake information for insight.
Natera
Natera. Thirteen percent of his portfolio. That’s a commitment, or a desperation move, depending on your view. Genetic testing. Women’s health, cancer, the usual. They’re losing money now, but promise high-teens growth. Everyone promises growth. The margins are expanding, they say. Sixty-one point eight to sixty-four point nine percent. That’s a rounding error dressed up as a trend. They’ve got pricing power, naturally. When you’re dealing with health, people tend to pay. Their oncology tests are up fifty-four percent. Cancer is a growth industry. Signatera, their blood test, is supposed to be the key. Personalized medicine. Sounds expensive.
They bleed cash, but they generate it too. Recurring revenue. Cancer survivors need testing. Keeps the accountants happy. Scalable business model. That’s what they all say. Wall Street projects free cash flow growing from a hundred and three million to two hundred and eighty-two million. A nice story. For speculative investors. The kind who confuse hope with analysis.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
TSM. Five point four percent of the portfolio. Up eighty percent in a year. The AI boom, they say. Everyone’s chasing the AI dragon. Alphabet and Amazon are throwing money at it. That’s predictable. It’s easy to spend other people’s money.
But here’s the rub. The CEO, C.C. Wei, admits AI demand was hot, but everything else was…mild. A recovery, he calls it. A polite way of saying it was flat. Their fate is tied to the AI hype. That’s a fragile foundation.
And they’re spending. A hundred and one billion dollars. Expect more. Rising costs. Need to support growth. The usual excuses. It’s always something. They want you to believe it’s a good thing. Investing for growth. Of course. But it also means limited opportunities to expand cash flow. A greater burden of capital expenditure, he admits. Translation: they’re borrowing to keep the party going.
Growth is good. Debt is not. They’re betting big. So are a lot of people. The risks are increasing. And the margins? Forget about them for a while. These things need to be factored in. Before you hand over your money. Because in this game, the house always wins. Eventually.
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2026-02-22 03:32