Data is the engine of markets. Yet its abundance can blind as easily as it illuminates. Amid quarterly earnings seasons and ceaseless economic reports, crucial truths slip through the cracks. Consider Form 13Fs-the quarterly disclosures of institutional investors with $100 million+ in assets. These filings, filed August 14 this year, reveal patterns most overlook. Patterns worth examining.
Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, managing over $4 billion at Duquesne Family Office, offers one such pattern. Over the past year, he exited Palantir Technologies entirely-a 770,000-share position-and doubled down on Teva Pharmaceutical Industries across four consecutive quarters. This is not random trading. It is signal, not noise.
Palantir’s precipice: When valuations defy gravity
Palantir’s 2,700% surge since 2023 reflects its unique position. Its platforms-Gotham for governments, Foundry for enterprises-are indispensable tools. They analyze war zones, automate supply chains, and digest data with few substitutes. Predictable cash flows follow. The company has consistently outperformed Wall Street’s forecasts, fueled by multiyear defense contracts.
Yet Druckenmiller’s exit suggests limits to faith. His average holding period? Under seven months. Profit-taking explains part of the sale. The deeper issue lies in numbers that defy reason. Palantir’s price-to-sales ratio recently hit 140-four times the peak of dot-com era giants. No company, however dominant, escapes arithmetic forever.
History warns: every technological revolution births a bubble. The internet’s pioneers collapsed under their own hype. AI’s current euphoria-Palantir’s valuation included-will face the same reckoning. The question is not if, but when.
a disastrous Actavis acquisition, opioid litigation, and stagnant growth. But settlements are settled. Debt is shrinking. Management, under CEO Richard Francis, pivoted to branded drugs like Austedo-a $2 billion seller in 2025.
The math is stark. The S&P 500’s Shiller P/E hovers near 39. Teva’s forward P/E? 6.3. Cheapness alone is no virtue-but combined with reduced leverage, focused R&D, and a cleared legal slate, it becomes opportunity. Druckenmiller sees what others dismiss: a drugmaker rebuilt, not reinvented.
Markets swing between mania and despair. Druckenmiller navigates these extremes with a simple compass: price and value. Palantir’s ascent became a parable of excess. Teva’s revival, a lesson in patience. The rest of us would do well to follow his logic-not his footsteps. 🧠
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2025-08-20 11:16