It’s funny, isn’t it? The way we treat investing. Like a perfectly curated Pinterest board of aspirational wealth. I was watching DraftKings (DKNG 13.51%)—or, more accurately, watching the number next to my admittedly small position in it—plummet yesterday, and I couldn’t help but think of my Aunt Carol. She collects porcelain thimbles. Same principle, really. You buy something believing it will accrue value, and then you spend years rearranging it, hoping someone, someday, will see the inherent worth. DraftKings closed at $21.76, down a fairly dramatic 13.51%. Trading volume? 65.6 million shares. That’s…a lot of thimbles. Or, you know, shares. My broker sent me a celebratory email about the volume. As if frantic selling is something to applaud. They’ve been IPO’d since 2019, up 122% since then, but it’s the potential that really gets you. The promise of more. It’s always the promise of more.
The S&P 500 barely budged—up 0.03% to 6,835—and the Nasdaq Composite dipped a little (0.22% to 22,547). Penn Entertainment, a competitor, wasn’t doing much better, down 5.24% to $11.76. It’s like watching a slow-motion domino rally of mild disappointment. You almost want to look away, but you can’t. You’ve invested emotional energy, and a small amount of capital, so you’re obligated to witness the inevitable.
DraftKings reported Q4 earnings—sales up 43%, adjusted EBITDA tripled—but apparently, Wall Street wanted more. They’re guiding for only 11% sales growth in 2026. Eleven percent. It feels…restrained. Like a polite cough when you were expecting a roar. The stock is trading at 2 times sales, 21 times free cash flow, and down 53% over the last year. Which, if you squint, isn’t terrible. It’s reasonably priced, they say. Reasonably priced disappointment. It’s a niche market, really. They’re pivoting towards margins and cutting stock-based compensation. Smart. Dilution is the enemy. It’s like adding water to a perfectly good whiskey. You don’t even realize it’s happening until it’s too late.
They’re expanding into prediction markets, iGaming, fantasy sports, and lottery offerings. A lot of irons in the fire. That’s what my grandfather used to say about his failed attempts at beekeeping. “Lots of irons in the fire.” It usually meant everything was about to go wrong. But with DraftKings, there’s a compelling buy thesis, if you’re comfortable with the booming sports betting industry and all its…adjacencies. It’s a gamble, of course. Everything is. But sometimes, a little bit of calculated risk—and a healthy dose of self-awareness—is worth the price of admission. And maybe, just maybe, my Aunt Carol will finally find a buyer for her thimble collection.
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2026-02-14 01:03