Dow at 50,000 & Other Mild Panics

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Right. So, the Dow. It’s at 50,000, which sounds…large. Honestly, I’m trying not to think about it too much. It’s like realizing you’ve accidentally signed up for another subscription service. You know it’s happening, but you avoid looking at the bank statement. Anyway, everyone’s terribly excited. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are also doing that thing where they go up. Apparently, it’s all down to AI and the Federal Reserve being…well, they’re doing something. It all feels a bit precarious, doesn’t it? Like building a tower out of Jenga blocks while blindfolded.

And then I read this thing – Bespoke Investment Group, very official sounding – and apparently the Dow has had ten consecutive months of gains. Ten! That’s…unusual. Like finding a matching pair of socks after laundry day. They say it’s only happened six times in the last 130 years. Which, frankly, is a long time to be keeping track of stock market streaks. Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24. It’s all a bit much, really.

The Dow’s Winning Streaks: A History (and Mild Anxiety)

Apparently, when the Dow does this – this whole ten-month-winning-streak thing – good things tend to follow. They dug up the historical data, and it’s quite impressive. Though, of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results. That’s what they always say, and it’s terribly irritating. It’s like saying “may contain traces of nuts” on a packet of crisps. You already suspect it might.

  • March 1936 (12-month winning streak): 21.5% five-year return
  • March 1943 (11 months): 29.8%
  • May 1950 (11 months): 90.2%
  • February 1959 (12 months): 32.6%
  • January 2018 (10 months): 30.4%
  • February 2026 (10 months and counting): to be determined. (Please, let it be good.)

So, on average, the Dow goes up by 32.3% five years after these streaks end. Which sounds…optimistic. I’m trying to remain cautiously optimistic. It’s a difficult balance, you know? Like trying to walk in heels on cobblestones.

The Short-Term Outlook: A Little Bit Scary

Okay, deep breaths. The long term seems okay, apparently. But the short term? A bit terrifying. The stock market is, shall we say, rather expensive. It’s like that dress you bought on sale, then realized it needed alterations. It’s not cheap anymore. The Shiller P/E ratio is at 40. Forty! It’s the second-highest it’s ever been since 1871. That’s a long time. And apparently, when it gets this high, things tend to…correct. Which is a polite way of saying “go down.”

And then there’s the Federal Reserve. Honestly, it’s all a bit much. There’s a lot of disagreement, and Jerome Powell is leaving soon. It’s like the captain abandoning ship just before the storm hits. I’m starting to think I should just invest in chocolate. At least that’s consistently satisfying.

So, yes. The Dow might go up significantly in the long run. But in the short term? It could get a bit dicey. I’m going to go lie down. And maybe buy some chocolate. Will become disciplined long-term investor: 0%. Number of Emergency Biscuits Consumed: 7. It’s a process.

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2026-03-02 22:52