As a seasoned crypto investor who lived through the early days of Bitcoin and witnessed its meteoric rise, I can’t help but draw parallels between the skepticism towards quantum computing today and the dismissal of cryptocurrencies back then. I remember being told that Bitcoin was nothing more than a passing fad, yet here we are years later, with an industry worth trillions.
December 9th saw the reveal by Google’s Quantum Artificial Intelligence (AI) group of Willow, an innovative quantum computing chip, marking a substantial advancement in quantum technology.
The device called Willow boasts 105 physical qubits and enhanced error correction, allowing it to tackle computations that surpass even the capabilities of the most advanced supercomputers within the current physics timeframes. Google underscores this as a significant stride in their mission to develop dependable quantum computers, which could ultimately broaden human understanding for the betterment of society.
Quantum computing employs a distinct method for handling information compared to traditional computing, using quantum bits (qubits) rather than binary digits that can only be 0 or 1. Instead, qubits make use of the principle of superposition, enabling them to exist in multiple states simultaneously. Furthermore, qubits can become entangled, which enables quantum computers to process large volumes of data concurrently and tackle complex problems much more efficiently than classical systems could ever hope to.
Google’s announcement emphasized the significant breakthroughs in Willow’s construction, particularly its capability to manufacture qubits internally using superconducting integrated circuits. These intricate circuits are built with meticulously chosen materials and exact fabrication methods to generate top-tier qubits that remain steady and manageable. Reducing noise is essential since quantum computers are extremely vulnerable to external influences like electromagnetic fields, heat, and cosmic radiation. To mitigate this noise, Google’s engineers construct specialized casings that protect the qubits while maintaining their connection to external systems.
As an analyst, I oversee the regulation of qubits by managing microwave signals that traverse specialized wiring networks capable of functioning across a wide range of temperatures, from room temperature to almost absolute zero. These systems are designed for optimal signal delivery and shielding qubits from disturbances. Moreover, Willow operates within a dilution refrigerator, an environment colder than deep space. This frigid state is essential for the superconducting qubits to preserve their quantum attributes and execute computations with minimal energy waste.
A critical distinction in quantum computing is the difference between physical and logical qubits. Physical qubits are the raw units of quantum information used in hardware. However, due to the fragile nature of qubits and their susceptibility to errors from noise and interference, physical qubits alone are not sufficient for reliable computations.
Instead of individual logical qubits, we have more robust ones known as error-corrected qubits. These are made up of multiple basic qubits combined into a single, dependable computational entity. To ensure reliability in a logical qubit, there’s often a substantial increase in resources; the number of physical qubits used can reach thousands, with the exact amount depending on the effectiveness of error correction.
This difference is important since the large quantities mentioned when discussing the cracking of cryptographic algorithms, like millions of quantum bits (qubits), are in reference to actual physical qubits. However, Willow has only managed to achieve 105 qubits, highlighting the significant progress needed in quantum technology before it becomes a genuine danger to existing encryption systems.
Bitcoin primarily uses two encryption methods: ECDSA 256 (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) and SHA-256 (Secure Hash Algorithm). ECDSA 256 handles transaction signatures, but it could be susceptible to Shor’s algorithm, which might crack the code using a quantum computer requiring millions of logical qubits. However, with Willow having only 105 physical qubits, this is far from achievable. SHA-256 powers Bitcoin’s mining process through proof-of-work, and Grover’s algorithm could potentially weaken its security by half. Yet, implementing such a reduction would also necessitate millions of physical qubits, a scale the quantum computing industry has not reached yet.
Charles Edwards cautioned against underestimating the progress in quantum computing (QC), comparing current doubts to the early dismissals of Bitcoin. He emphasized that quantum computing isn’t just a possibility but a massive-scale transformative force, capable of significantly altering industries, such as Bitcoin’s cryptographic security, if appropriate actions aren’t taken promptly.
As a crypto investor, I’ve been keeping tabs on the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin’s encryption. Studies suggest that this potential danger could manifest within the next five to ten years. Contrary to some inflated estimates, it might only take around 2,500 logical qubits to crack Bitcoin’s SHA-256 encryption, which is significantly less than the 300 million sometimes claimed. Logical qubits and physical qubits are different entities, but let me emphasize that error correction technologies are rapidly advancing, making this milestone more attainable each day.
He warned that many industry estimates place a serious 50% risk of Bitcoin’s cryptographic vulnerabilities becoming exploitable within five to ten years. Given this trajectory, he urged the Bitcoin and blockchain communities to act swiftly, particularly as leading quantum computing firms listed on the NASDAQ project reaching around 3,000 logical qubits within five years.
As an analyst, I’d like to emphasize the logistical hurdles we face when migrating Bitcoin to cryptography resistant to quantum computing. Even under optimal conditions, it seems we’re looking at a minimum of one year from reaching consensus to implementing these upgrades network-wide. This compressed timeline underscores the immediate need for action, regardless of whether the quantum threat manifests in three, five, or even fifteen years from now.
The level of Quantum Computing skepticism today reminds me of the average person who spends 10 minutes researching Bitcoin and then dismissing it as valueless.
Quantum Computing is real. It will change the world. MASSIVELY.
QC will break Bitcoin if we do not upgrade it. The…
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) December 10, 2024
In simpler terms, Ben Sigman stressed again that Willow’s 105 physical quantum bits (or qubits) are far fewer than the millions needed to potentially endanger Bitcoin. He underlined the need to remain cautious, but also highlighted that at this point, Bitcoin’s encryption remains strong and secure.
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2024-12-10 17:19