The broader market, as a rule, contrives to offer a return over ten years, a feat achieved despite the best efforts of economists and politicians to sabotage it. One allows for the occasional hiccup, naturally—a period of unseemly instability—but the general trend is upward, as predictable as a vicar’s disapproval. It is, therefore, a reasonable proposition that capital entrusted to equities today will not be entirely dissipated by 2036. One might even see a modest profit.
Investing in companies that distribute a portion of their earnings—dividends, they are called—offers a slight refinement to this rather crude calculation. These payouts, reinvested, have historically outperformed their more austere counterparts. Let us consider, then, two such concerns, Bristol Myers Squibb and Amgen, and examine their prospects for survival—and, if fortune smiles, modest prosperity—over the coming decade.
1. Bristol Myers Squibb
Bristol Myers Squibb has, of late, been exhibiting a certain…stasis. The share price has meandered, a performance significantly lagging the general market exuberance. This is, of course, attributed to the predictable woes of expiring patents. The company, however, has weathered such storms before, and one anticipates a similar resilience. Their product line, particularly in the field of oncology, remains substantial, if not entirely immune to the ravages of time and competition.
The introduction of a subcutaneous formulation of Opdivo—a rather clever refinement, one must admit—will, for a time, fend off the inevitable onslaught of generics. Such ingenuity, though, is rarely enough to halt the tide entirely.
More intriguing, perhaps, is their foray into the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease. A graveyard, that field, littered with the failed ambitions of pharmaceutical houses. BMS-986446, however, has been granted ‘Fast Track Designation’ by the authorities—a gesture of encouragement, though one suspects it is more often a palliative for disappointed investors. Still, a glimmer of hope in a particularly bleak landscape.
Should this venture falter—and one would not wager heavily against it—Bristol Myers possesses a portfolio of alternative candidates. BMS-986001 for HIV, iberdomide for multiple myeloma, and a collaboration with BioNTech on a range of cancers. A diversified approach, as any sensible gambler will attest. They appear determined to launch new products and offset the inevitable decline in revenue from older ones.
Their dividend, currently yielding a respectable 4.4%, has increased by a considerable margin over the past decade. A palliative, certainly, but one appreciated by those of a more conservative disposition. Bristol Myers Squibb, despite its recent tribulations, remains an attractive, if unexciting, addition to a portfolio.
2. Amgen
Amgen enjoyed a rather fortunate 2025, a circumstance unlikely to be repeated this year. The full effects of patent expirations are now being felt. The company, however, appears well-prepared for this eventuality, possessing a number of growth drivers still in operation. Tezspire, their asthma treatment, continues to perform admirably, bolstered by recent label expansions. A triumph of marketing, one suspects, as much as scientific innovation.
Tepezza, for thyroid eye disease, also continues to generate revenue, aided by approvals in various foreign markets. A niche product, perhaps, but one that fills a niche nonetheless.
Repatha, for lowering cholesterol, remains a significant contributor to revenue, while Pavblu, a biosimilar of Eylea, has captured a substantial share of the market. A predictable outcome, one might add, as the price of innovation invariably diminishes. Beyond these established products, Amgen possesses a pipeline of promising candidates. MariTide, their GLP-1 medicine, is undergoing phase 3 trials for diabetes and weight management. A crowded field, to be sure, but one offering substantial rewards to those who succeed.
Bemarituzumab, for gastric cancer, has also shown promise in late-stage trials. And a number of other programs are in development. Given their robust product list and promising pipeline, Amgen appears well-positioned to navigate the challenges ahead, even as they contend with patent cliffs and competitive pressures.
Their dividend, currently yielding over 3%, has increased annually since 2011. A consistent performance, if not a spectacular one. Income-seeking investors can, therefore, add this stock to their portfolios with a degree of confidence, albeit tempered by a healthy dose of skepticism.
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2026-01-19 22:02