Dividends and Disappointments

The market offers dividends, yes. A paltry return, barely enough to offset the quiet erosion of value. The S&P 500 yields so little these days, it feels almost…charitable. One searches for something more substantial, a flicker of genuine income in a landscape of promises. Three companies present themselves, offering yields above 3%. Whether they offer anything beyond that is, as always, a question for the long evenings.

Brookfield Infrastructure

Brookfield Infrastructure, a name that suggests solidity, offers a yield around 3.8%. They deal in the tangible – utilities, transportation, the unseen arteries of modern life. Most of their income is secured, they say, by contracts and regulation. A comforting thought, until one remembers that contracts can be broken, and regulations…altered. Still, 85% of their earnings are supposedly shielded from the whims of inflation. A significant percentage, if one believes in the permanence of anything.

They reinvest, of course. $7.8 billion in projects, mostly in data centers and semiconductor foundries. Ambitious. One wonders if they’ve considered the inevitable obsolescence of technology, the relentless march of progress that renders even the newest investment…slightly outdated. They speak of growth, of expanding operations. It’s a familiar refrain. The world is full of expanding operations, and equally full of abandoned ones.

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They acquire businesses, too. A pipeline here, a fiber network there. It’s a constant patching of holes, a desperate attempt to maintain momentum. They anticipate growth of over 10% annually. A bold prediction. One can only hope they’ve accounted for the unforeseen, the inevitable setbacks that plague all endeavors.

ExxonMobil

ExxonMobil, a giant, offers a yield just over 3%. A large, integrated business, they claim, mitigates the volatility of oil prices. A comforting thought, if one doesn’t dwell on the inherent instability of global energy markets. They also possess a “fortress balance sheet.” A strong foundation, perhaps, but even fortresses eventually fall.

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They are, apparently, the most profitable company in the industry. And they expect to become even more so. By 2030, they anticipate significant growth in earnings and cash flow. It’s a grand vision. One wonders if it accounts for the shifting tides of energy policy, the growing demand for alternatives, the slow, inexorable decline of fossil fuels.

They foresee $145 billion in surplus cash over the next five years, assuming an oil price of around $65 per barrel. A reasonable assumption, perhaps. Or a naive one. They’ve increased their dividend for 42 consecutive years. An impressive streak. One can only hope it continues. But time, as always, is the ultimate arbiter.

Prologis

Prologis, a real estate investment trust, offers a yield of 3.2%. They deal in logistics properties, the warehouses and distribution centers that keep the world supplied. Their leases contain annual rental escalation clauses, ensuring a steady rise in income. A predictable, if uninspiring, business model.

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They possess a conservative payout ratio and a strong balance sheet. Financial prudence, one might say. They invest in development projects and acquisitions. Expanding their portfolio, they claim. A constant striving for growth. One wonders if they’ve considered the potential for oversupply, the cyclical nature of the real estate market.

They see an opportunity in data centers, leveraging their land bank and expertise in solar energy. An ambitious diversification strategy. One can only hope it proves successful. They’ve grown their payout at a rate of 13% annually over the last five years. An impressive performance. But past performance, as they say, is no guarantee of future results.

A Quiet Observation

Brookfield Infrastructure, ExxonMobil, and Prologis all offer yields above 3%, backed by strong businesses and financial profiles. They also possess excellent dividend growth track records. These are solid companies, undoubtedly. But the market is a fickle mistress. And life, as always, is full of disappointments. One can invest, of course. One can hope for the best. But ultimately, the future remains uncertain. The dividends arrive, then are quietly spent. And the world, indifferent to our calculations, continues to turn.

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2026-01-26 00:12