Deep Currents: A Mining Bet

Many years later, as the salt spray tasted of iron and regret on the lips of the engineers, they would recall the summer the ocean began to whisper of fortunes lost and found. It was a summer of heat so thick it seemed to press down on the lungs, and the sea, usually a restless turquoise, lay still and brooding, reflecting a sky the color of tarnished silver. The tale begins, of course, with TMC The Metals Company (TMC 1.90%), a venture born of ambition and the peculiar alchemy of the market, a company that sought to coax riches from the abyssal plains, a place where sunlight surrenders to eternal night. It arrived on the scene through a merger, a fleeting dance of numbers and promises in 2021, and has since known a volatility that mirrors the ocean’s own capricious moods.

The share price, a fragile vessel tossed on the waves of speculation, dipped and swayed, falling fifteen and a half percent from its initial launch. Yet, a curious thing happened. Over the past year, a surge, a fever dream of investment, lifted TMC, a testament to the power of narrative and the enduring human hope for easy gain. The company remains, for now, a phantom, a blueprint on paper, conducting tests, navigating the labyrinthine corridors of regulation, seeking permission to disturb the ancient slumber of the deep. No revenue has yet materialized, only the murmur of anticipation, fueled by a world increasingly aware of its dependencies.

For the United States, a nation built on the promise of self-reliance, a shadow hangs over its prosperity. China holds the keys to the mineral kingdom, particularly the rare-earth elements that underpin so much of modern life. A delicate, dangerous balance, a fault line running beneath the foundations of economic security. Relations between the two giants grow colder with each passing season, and the whispers of a new rivalry echo in the halls of power. This is where TMC attempts to insert itself, a potential lifeline, a means of severing the ties that bind.

Initially focused on the collection of nodules, those humble treasures scattered across the seabed, investors began to dream of a greater prize: rare-earth minerals. A shift in perception, a subtle recalibration of expectations. As of this writing, TMC stock has climbed six hundred and twenty-seven percent over the past year, a dizzying ascent, and its market capitalization now stands at three point three billion dollars. A kingdom built on the promise of what lies beneath.

A Different Current

While TMC may yet prove to be a winning hand, I find my gaze drawn to a different vessel, a company that navigates these deep currents with a quiet competence. Kraken Robotics (KRKN.F 0.54%), a name that evokes the mythical creatures of the abyss, doesn’t seek to extract riches from the seabed directly. Instead, it provides the tools, the technologies that will allow others—the United States and its allies—to chart their own course, to reduce their reliance on distant shores. It is a company built on expertise, not speculation.

Kraken, born in the cold clarity of Canada, designs and manufactures deep-sea battery systems and synthetic aperture sonar (SAS). These are not mere instruments; they are extensions of human senses, allowing uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs) to explore the depths, to function at depths of up to six thousand meters—a realm of perpetual darkness and crushing pressure—and to operate for longer than any competitor. Its SAS technology maps the seafloor with a precision that borders on the uncanny, revealing hidden landscapes and submerged objects. UUVs, those silent sentinels of the deep, are poised to play an ever-increasing role in deep-sea mining, and Kraken provides the eyes and the power that will guide them.

But Kraken’s ambitions extend beyond mining. Its technology is also finding applications in defense, in the realm of undersea drones. As geopolitical tensions rise, these silent guardians of the ocean become increasingly vital. Kraken has already forged a partnership with Anduril, a rising star in next-generation defense technologies, and has secured contracts with the Royal Canadian Navy. It frequently demonstrates its capabilities to members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a quiet assertion of its prowess.

In the third quarter, Kraken’s revenue surged sixty percent year over year, reaching thirty-one point three million Canadian dollars. A healthy pulse, a sign of vitality. Its gross margin stands at fifty-nine percent, and its net income margin at ten and a half percent. A solid foundation, built on innovation and execution. With a vast runway for long-term expansion and a proven ability to deliver profits, I believe Kraken Robotics represents a more compelling investment than TMC at this moment. It is a company that doesn’t chase the mirage of instant riches, but builds a sustainable future, one silent, powerful current at a time.

2026-01-17 20:42

A Different Current

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