Dave’s Leap of Faith (and Numbers)

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Shares of Dave (DAVE +17.25%) experienced a rather enthusiastic upward trajectory on Friday. It wasn’t, as some of the more excitable financial scribes suggested, a sudden manifestation of market euphoria. No, it was, as is so often the case, numbers. Specifically, preliminary numbers for the fourth quarter that suggested Dave, the branchless bank, wasn’t, in fact, sinking quite as fast as some had feared.1

By 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time, Dave’s stock price had ascended by a respectable 16% or so. A healthy bounce, one might say, in a market where bouncing often involves hoping for a slightly less catastrophic fall.

The Alchemists’ Brew: Revenue and the Illusion of Profit

Dave now anticipates net operating revenues of around $164 million for the fourth quarter – a 62% increase. A significant leap, and one that would make even the most jaded Guild of Alchemists2 raise an eyebrow. They also expect earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to swell by 118% to $73 million. EBITDA, of course, being a metric beloved by those who wish to discuss profit without actually mentioning profit.3

“Q4 represented our third consecutive quarter of 60%+ revenue growth,” proclaimed CEO Jason Wilk in a press release. “Driven by accelerating monthly transacting member growth, continued ARPU [average revenue per user] expansion, and strong underlying demand for our products.” Which, translated from corporate-speak, means more people are giving Dave their money, and Dave is getting better at keeping it. A commendable skill, even if the actual use of that money remains a mystery shrouded in algorithms and venture capital.

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For the full year, management is projecting net operating revenues of $554 million and adjusted EBITDA of $227 million in 2025 – up from previous forecasts. This represents growth of 60% and 162% respectively. Impressive numbers, though one can’t help but wonder if they’re being inflated by the sheer optimism inherent in any forecast made by someone who benefits directly from it.

“The operating leverage embedded in our model continued to strengthen throughout 2025,” Mr. Wilk continued. “Full-year adjusted EBITDA grew over 160%, nearly three times our revenue growth rate, a direct result of strengthening unit economics and deepening member relationships while maintaining our discipline on fixed costs.” In other words, they’re squeezing more juice out of each customer, and being remarkably efficient at not spending money. A perfectly reasonable strategy, until you need to, say, build something. Or pay people.

The Oracle Speaks: An Earnings Call on March 2nd

Investors can expect further illumination – or, at least, more carefully worded statements – when Dave reports its finalized fourth-quarter results on March 2nd. Management plans to hold a conference call with investors that same day at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time. A ritualistic gathering where questions are asked, answers are carefully crafted, and the true state of affairs remains, as always, tantalizingly out of reach.

1 It’s a little-known fact that the financial markets are governed by a complex system of fear and hope, much like a particularly anxious flock of pigeons.
2 The Guild of Alchemists and Venture Capitalists are surprisingly similar organizations, both specializing in turning base metals (or, in this case, ideas) into gold (or, at least, slightly less worthless paper).
3 EBITDA is the financial equivalent of a magician’s trick – impressive to watch, but ultimately based on illusion.

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2026-02-06 22:52