The crypto community has a new catalyst, and the excitement is building fast.
Although the Clarity Act of 2026 is currently stuck in the Senate, most people believe it will eventually become law. Investors are already anticipating a significant market increase as a result, with JPMorgan calling it a helpful development. Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, estimates there’s a 90% chance of it passing by the end of April.
The common belief surrounding X is that once clear rules are established, investment will surge and prices will rapidly increase.
But crypto trader Aaron, known as MooninPapa and a market participant since 2017, isn’t buying it.
“You’ve Seen This Movie Before”
Aaron isn’t saying the Clarity Act is unimportant. He believes the market will have adjusted by the time the law is actually passed.
He explained the trading strategy of buying an asset when there’s speculation about positive news, and then selling it when the news actually breaks. He emphasized that this principle applies to cryptocurrency just as much as to other investments.
His evidence is hard to ignore.
Speculation about Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) caused a significant price increase for BTC, jumping from around $28,000 to $74,000 – a gain of 164%. However, once the ETF was officially available, the price didn’t change much. Similarly, when a spot ETF for Ethereum was announced, ETH’s price rose 20% in one day, but over the next year, it fell by 64%.
This pattern keeps repeating with different projects, big collaborations, and improvements to the underlying technology. But each time, people seem to quickly forget what happened before.
Who’s Actually Winning Here?
Aaron also raises a harder question about who institutional adoption actually benefits.
I genuinely hope BlackRock, a huge company with a significant amount of Bitcoin, gains even more power to affect Bitcoin’s price going forward.
He predicts a downturn for Bitcoin in the near future. He thinks Bitcoin reached its highest price in October 2025 and anticipates a roughly year-long price decline, potentially bottoming out around $35,000 by October 2026.
What It Means for Bitcoin and XRP
The Clarity Act may still pass. It may even spark a short-term move.
Looking at past trends, successful traders won’t be those who jump in after a decision is made. They’ll be the ones who anticipated it and invested beforehand, while others were still waiting to see what would happen.
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2026-03-06 15:06