Ah, the fickle embrace of fortune! Bitcoin, that darling of the digital realm, has taken a most precipitous tumble, descending from its lofty perch to a mere $72K on the third day of February. How the mighty have fallen, and how the analysts, those modern-day oracles, now whisper of a “crypto winter” with all the gravitas of a Shakespearean tragedy.
Matt Hougan, the CIO of Bitwise-a man whose title alone suggests a certain flair for the dramatic-proclaims that this icy season began in January 2025. He insists that only the $75 billion in demand from ETF and treasury firms has stayed the executioner’s hand. Without it, he declares with a flourish, Bitcoin’s price would have plummeted by a full 60%. “We are in a full-blown crypto winter,” he intones, his words dripping with the weight of prophecy.
“We have been in a crypto winter since January 2025. Chances are, we’re closer to the end than the beginning. We are in a full-blown crypto winter.”
Yet, like all great dramas, there is dissent among the cast. Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, offers a different timeline, suggesting the bear market began in November 2025 and may linger until the third quarter of 2026. How quaint, these temporal squabbles, when the very fabric of crypto is at stake!
“The Bitcoin bear market started in November 2025, as suggested by on-chain and market data, and the timing has implications for when it will end. My current expectation is Q3 2026.”
For the uninitiated, Bitcoin’s fall below $100K and the bull market’s support of the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in November was a spectacle worthy of a Greek tragedy. Moreno’s analysis, it seems, aligns with the august predictions of AMBCrypto, adding a touch of academic rigor to this melodrama.
The Bottomless Pit of Crypto Despair
With projections of a reversal by mid to late 2026, one must wonder: how low can Bitcoin go? In the last cycle, the bear market bottomed out at the peak of the 2017 cycle, a level that would place us around $70K, the 2021 market top. Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, echoes this sentiment, predicting that BTC will test the $70K support. “Capitulation has just started in ETFs,” she remarks, her tone as somber as a funeral dirge.
“The price trend in crypto is negative, and capitulation has just started in ETFs. I would expect the bearish move to lead BTC to test $70k support.”
When asked for a glimmer of hope, Barthere suggests the adoption of the CLARITY Act by Congress might stabilize prices. Yet, on-chain data paints a less optimistic picture, with the MVRV Z-Score sloping downward toward the fair-value zone that marked past market bottoms. Are we, perhaps, still far from the true nadir? Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, ever the optimist, insists that ‘all pieces’ are in place for a rebound. One can only hope he is not merely tilting at windmills.
The Final Act
- Bitwise’s CIO declares a ‘full-blown’ crypto winter, yet hints at its imminent end-a paradox worthy of Wilde himself.
- CryptoQuant predicts a winter lasting until Q3 2026, while Nansen fixes its gaze on $70K as the potential floor. How very dramatic.
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2026-02-04 15:13