As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for deciphering market movements, I find myself intrigued by this tale of the whale “zxgngl” and their unprecedented bet on Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential win. With my years of experience in navigating the cryptosphere, I’ve learned to read between the lines and spot trends that others might miss.
The well-known cryptocurrency investor called “zxgngl” has taken out approximately $2.36 million worth of USDC stablecoin from Binance, a prominent crypto exchange. It appears this move is aimed at increasing their investment in Polymarket, a platform for prediction markets, based on the assumption that former U.S. President Donald Trump may win the upcoming elections.
As reported by the well-known on-chain analysis provider, Lookonchain, a significant whale has transferred approximately 14.2 million USD Coin (USDC) from the prominent cryptocurrency exchange platform since October 11. It appears that the majority of these funds could be allocated towards their wager on the Trump market.
Currently, according to Polymarket data, zxgngl has a $13.28 million investment in the possibility of Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Their position is currently showing an unrealized loss of approximately $855,000 with their holding of 22.91 million shares.
Over a period, a significant investor in cryptocurrencies, often referred to as a ‘crypto whale’, has consistently increased their holdings and now controls the largest number of shares wagering on Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency. This crypto whale recently outmaneuvered another prominent investor, Fredi9999, who previously held the most shares with 21.18 million.
On Polymarket, the predicted chance of Trump winning the upcoming election peaked at 66.9%, but dropped significantly over the weekend, now sitting at 57.7%. Yet, polls indicate that the contest is likely to be close, with the outcome potentially being determined by crucial swing states.
As per economist Justin Wolfers, it appears that Trump’s chances of winning are decreasing due to the reported decline in influence by significant figures, coinciding with polls suggesting that the election race is becoming more competitive.
It’s important to mention that historically, the market depth on Polymarket has been relatively shallow, implying that big positions can have a substantial impact on the probabilities for any contender. However, it appears that this liquidity has noticeably improved in the recent past.
Significantly, the probability of Trump winning the election dropped from 64% to 52% in the prediction market Kalshi, which is overseen by federal regulations.
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2024-11-04 19:36