Well, butter my biscuit and call me confused! The crypto circus is in town again, and this time, the clowns are selling Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana faster than a catfish can wiggle out of a fisherman’s hands. According to some fella named Axel-who, I reckon, spends more time staring at charts than a possum at a porch light-the prices are still tumbling like a drunk man down a hill.
The Great Crypto Plummet: A Tale of Woe and Woe-is-Me
Axel, in his infinite wisdom (or perhaps just his infinite charts), pointed out that the BTC breakdown below the $90,000 mark was accompanied by some mighty peculiar exchange inflows. Seems the sellers were prepped like a preacher on Sunday morning, ready to unload their digital treasures. And now, the short-term holders’ SOPR is acting more like a stubborn mule than a helpful guide, resisting support like it’s a tax collector at the door.
Between January 20 and 21, nearly 17,000 BTC flowed into exchanges-coinciding with BTC dropping faster than a politician’s promises. Ethereum and Solana, not wanting to be left out of the misery, followed suit like lemmings off a cliff. Axel reckons this was no accident, but a sign of supply preparation-structural, not emotional, mind you. Though, if you ask me, anyone watching their crypto investments plummet is likely feeling plenty emotional.
Axel also mentioned that the netflow returned to neutral levels yesterday, but the accumulated inflow still hangs over the market like a dark cloud over a picnic. Unless netflow turns negative again amid rising prices-which would be about as likely as a snowball surviving in Hades-the overhang could lead to further declines. And let’s not forget the short-term holders, who are selling at breakeven faster than a hound dog chasing a rabbit.
A reversal, Axel says, would require the SOPR to break above 1.0 and stay there for three to five days-longer than most folks can hold their breath. But with the 7-day SMA SOPR below 0.996, it seems BTC is facing more selling pressure than a used car salesman at a lemon convention.
Why $100,000 Might as Well Be the Moon
Glassnode, another bunch of chart-gazers, chimed in to say that a Bitcoin rally above $100,000 looks about as likely as a pig taking flight. The supply overhang above $98,000 remains the dominant sell-side force, capping rebounds like a lid on a boiling pot. The recent rally, they note, has partially filled the air gap between $93,000 and $98,000, thanks to top buyers passing the torch to newer market participants. But the unresolved supply overhang is expected to keep prices from breaking out like a prisoner from a chain gang.
A sustained acceleration in demand momentum is needed for a clean breakout above $100,000-something as rare as a honest politician. Until then, crypto investors might as well sit tight and hope their digital fortunes don’t turn into digital dust.
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2026-01-23 16:21