As a seasoned crypto investor with several years of experience under my belt, I find Benjamin Cowen’s analysis on Bitcoin’s current position relative to its 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) both insightful and relevant. His historical parallels from previous years provide valuable context for understanding the potential implications of Bitcoin’s current situation below the 200D SMA.
As a researcher focusing on cryptocurrencies, I came across an intriguing thread by analyst Benjamin Cowen on July 7, 2024. In this post, Cowen discussed Bitcoin‘s (BTC) present situation in relation to its 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Notably, Bitcoin was below the 200D SMA at that time, having touched a local minimum on July 5, 2024. Cowen highlighted the significance of Bitcoin regaining the 200D SMA as it could influence Bitcoin’s market behavior in the last quarter (Q4) of the year.
In his analysis, Cowen made use of historical comparisons to strengthen his argument. He noted that in the year 2013, Bitcoin dipped beneath its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on July 5 and touched its local minimum. Subsequently, it regained momentum and returned to its range highs. Later, Bitcoin experienced a strong surge during the last quarter of that year.
As a researcher studying the Bitcoin market, I’ve observed that Cowen posits a significant correlation between Bitcoin’s ability to surpass its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) within this year and the likelihood of a rally in Q4. Conversely, if it takes longer for Bitcoin to regain this moving average, there is an increased chance of a decline in Q4, much like what transpired in 2019. I strongly advise keeping a close eye on the 200-day SMA as a critical indicator for potential market shifts.
Cowen warned against overreliance on historical comparisons when it comes to Bitcoin’s price, as each year brings new and distinct elements that impact its value. Instead, he recommended utilizing the past as a point of reference rather than a rigid guide for forecasting future trends.
The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is an essential technical tool utilized by investors and market analysts to discern underlying trends in Bitcoin’s price movement. By calculating the average of the past 200 days’ closing prices, it offers a clearer perspective on long-term price trends. If Bitcoin’s value exceeds the 200D SMA, it is generally perceived as being in an uptrend. On the other hand, when the price falls below the 200D SMA, it may be considered a downtrend. A local low, like the one on 5 July 2024, represents the minimum price reached by Bitcoin within a specified timeframe and can signal potential price reversals or serve as support levels.
In the perspective of Cowen, Bitcoin regaining its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) signifies the cryptocurrency’s price rising above this benchmark after previously falling below it. This event is frequently interpreted as a bullish indicator, suggesting a possible price surge in the coming quarters. According to his assessment, an expeditious bounce back from this significant moving average could initiate a robust Q4 rally, while a delay might cause a downturn before a probable uptick in the new year.
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2024-07-08 00:33