Crocs: A Gamble in Rubber

The numbers came in. Crocs (CROX +3.08%) had a quarter. Not a great one, not a disaster. Just…a quarter. The kind that makes you wonder if the market’s gone soft, or if everyone’s just wearing the wrong shoes.

They’re talking about HeyDude turning around. That’s like saying a broken clock will tell the right time eventually. It doesn’t mean it was a good clock to begin with.

The HeyDude Problem

Acquiring HeyDude in ’22 felt like a desperate man grabbing at a life raft made of foam. A mistake, plain and simple. They’re still cleaning up the wreckage. Inventory’s piled up like regrets. The hope is to get it seaworthy by the end of ’26. A long time to wait for a brand that feels like it should be retired.

Crocs, the original, managed a small uptick – 1% in sales. They’re moving shoes, mostly overseas. Direct-to-consumer is doing okay, but wholesale is lagging. Seems folks are still hesitant to bet big on rubber.

HeyDude, though? Down 17%. A slow leak, turning into a flood. Wholesale took a beating – 41%. They’re slashing prices, trying to stem the tide. It’s a messy business, this cleanup. Like trying to unscramble an egg.

Overall revenue dipped 3%. Not catastrophic, but it’s a warning sign. Gross margins shrunk. Earnings per share took a hit. They’re calling it “better than expected,” but that’s what everyone always says when things aren’t quite as bad as they feared.

Segment DTC Revenue Growth Wholesale Revenue Growth Total Revenue Growth
Crocs 6.1% (6.7%) 0.8%
HeyDude 0% (40.5%) (16.9%)
Total 4.7% (14.5%) (3.2%)

They’re projecting a slight uptick in sales for ’26. Mostly hoping international markets will carry the weight. They’re planning to open 200-250 new stores. China, India, Western Europe. A lot of rubber hitting a lot of pavement. It feels ambitious. Like building a castle on sand.

They need to fix HeyDude. Stop the bleeding. Cut the marketing spend. Get the inventory under control. If they can pull that off, it’ll be a win. But it’s a big “if.”

The stock is cheap. Trading at a forward P/E of 8. That’s tempting. But cheap stocks can stay cheap for a long time. It’s a gamble. A low-risk, low-reward kind of gamble.

So, is it too late to buy? Maybe. Maybe not. It depends on how much you like rubber. And how much you trust a company that’s trying to turn a sinking ship around.

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2026-02-17 22:03