Costco: The Weight of Endless Aisles

Many years later, when the last of the warehouse receipts had crumbled to dust and the scent of bulk-packaged coffee lingered only in the collective memory of bargain hunters, old Manuela would recall the year Costco seemed to defy gravity. It was a season of muted anxieties, of consumers tightening their belts while simultaneously craving the illusion of abundance, a paradox not lost on those who tracked the endless flow of pallets and the quiet desperation for a good deal. The air itself tasted of anticipation and discounted paper towels. It began, as all things do, with a simple calculation, a reckoning with the weight of endless aisles.

Costco Wholesale, that behemoth of bulk, that cathedral of consumerism, is rarely subjected to genuine scrutiny. It’s a blue chip, they say, a stalwart in a sea of volatile fortunes. Its shares, having delivered a return of 188% in five years – a statistic recited with the reverence usually reserved for ancient prophecies – are considered sacrosanct. But even the most imposing structures, those built on foundations of discounted rotisserie chickens and oversized detergent bottles, require a careful assessment. The question isn’t merely whether to buy, sell, or hold in 2026, but to understand the quiet forces shaping its destiny, the subtle shifts in the collective desire that fuel its relentless expansion.

The world outside Costco’s polished concrete floors is, of course, a turbulent one. There is talk of artificial intelligence, of geopolitical tensions simmering like a forgotten pot on the stove, of debt and a weakening faith in the future. But Costco, it seems, is immune. It continues to post consistent same-store sales growth, a rhythm as predictable as the changing of the seasons. In the last fiscal quarter, traffic increased by 3.1%, a whisper of encouragement in a world seemingly determined to hoard its resources. It’s a curious phenomenon, this ability to thrive even as others falter, a testament to the enduring human need for both value and volume.

The expansion is relentless. New warehouses rise from the earth like concrete mushrooms, each one a promise of more, of bigger, of cheaper. Analysts predict a compound annual growth rate of 7.6% between now and 2028, a projection that feels less like a forecast and more like an inevitability. Management speaks of opening at least 30 new stores per year, a plan that hints at a boundless ambition, a desire to blanket the landscape with its particular brand of abundance. Twenty-eight net new stores are planned for the coming year, each one a monument to the enduring power of the bargain.

The market, as always, assigns a premium to this perceived stability. Costco’s shares, while currently trading 8% below their peak, have risen 15% this year alone. It’s a curious dance, this assigning of value, a collective delusion that transforms concrete and cardboard into abstract wealth. The company is not without risk, of course, but the market seems determined to look away, to focus instead on the predictable rhythm of its earnings, the reassuring weight of its inventory. The price-to-earnings ratio of 52.9 is a clear indication of this faith, a staggering 106% higher than the S&P 500. It dwarfs competitors like Walmart and BJ’s Wholesale, and even surpasses the seemingly unassailable Amazon. The numbers, however, tell only part of the story.

I do not believe Costco is a buy at this moment. Not because of any fundamental weakness, but because the price already reflects a generous assessment of its future prospects. However, I would not advise existing shareholders to sell. The company is well-managed, its fundamentals are sound, and its long-term prospects remain promising. To sell now would be to relinquish a share of a quiet empire, to abandon a comfortable position in a world increasingly defined by uncertainty. It is, perhaps, better to hold, to observe, to wait for the inevitable shifts in the tide. To hold, and to remember that even the most imposing structures are built on foundations of sand.

2026-02-05 11:23

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