CoreWeave (CRWV) shareholders experienced a notable rise in September. The stock climbed 32.8% last month, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. This ascent, however, demands scrutiny beyond the numbers.
The artificial intelligence (AI) cloud services firm has been aggressively securing contracts to utilize its computing capacity. Over $20 billion in new agreements were announced last month, excluding $16 billion already tied to a single client. Such figures, while impressive, beg the question: how much of this is substance, and how much mere spectacle?
CoreWeave and the Multibillion-Dollar Illusion
Investors have bid up CoreWeave’s stock as it courts AI giants. In late September, it expanded its OpenAI deal to $6.5 billion-a cumulative $22 billion now attached to what began as a $12 billion agreement earlier this year. For a company with a $70 billion market cap and $10 billion in debt, such promises risk resembling a magician’s sleight of hand.
A second $14.2 billion contract with Meta Platforms was also disclosed. This follows a two-year-old master service agreement, now extended until December 2031. Yet contracts are not cash, and deadlines are not guarantees. The future hinges on whether these pledges translate into steady, profitable revenue.
A Caution for the Discerning Investor
CoreWeave’s recent venture capital initiative-CoreWeave Ventures-aims to “back founders shaping the AI ecosystem.” It has already acquired two AI developer platforms. Such moves may signal ambition, but they also divert resources from core operations. A $30 billion revenue backlog exists as of Q2, but with $3 billion spent quarterly on infrastructure, the arithmetic grows precarious.
The company’s valuation rests on the assumption that AI demand will accelerate unimpeded. Any misstep-a regulatory crackdown, a shift in tech priorities, or a slowdown in infrastructure spending-could unravel this narrative. For the value investor, the lesson is clear: optimism must be tempered with skepticism. A stock priced at $70 billion for a firm still building capacity is a gamble, not an investment.
CoreWeave’s trajectory mirrors the dot-com era’s exuberance. Its fortunes depend on a single, fragile thesis. Those who buy in must do so with eyes wide open. After all, the future is not a given-it is a gamble. 🚀
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2025-10-02 21:24