Contingency Plans for the Inevitable

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The market, naturally, isn’t collapsing. Not yet. Though one does wonder when the current edifice of speculative optimism will finally give way. It seldom arrives when anticipated, does it? More often, it’s a ghastly surprise, a rude awakening for those who’ve convinced themselves that ‘this time is different.’ A gradual correction is for the textbooks; crashes are, by their very nature, abrupt and undignified.

One observes, with a detached amusement, the perpetual insistence on ‘buying the dip.’ A charming delusion, particularly for those who lack the liquidity to do so when the dip becomes a precipice. Last year’s tariff-induced wobble, a mere blip in the grand scheme, proved that recoveries can be swift. The S&P 500, briefly inconvenienced, resumed its upward trajectory with indecent haste. Those who lacked the foresight, or the nerve, to act were, predictably, left lamenting their prudence.

Should the bubble, as it inevitably will, deflate, three stocks offer a modicum of reassurance. Not that they are immune to the general carnage – no company is, in these precarious times – but they possess certain qualities that suggest they will emerge, if not unscathed, at least recognisably intact. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon. One might call them the least objectionable of a rather dubious bunch.

Microsoft

The enduring appeal of Microsoft lies in its sheer ubiquity. The notion that businesses will suddenly abandon Office subscriptions, or dismantle their cloud infrastructure, in the midst of an economic downturn is, frankly, preposterous. It’s a hostage situation, of sorts. Clients may grumble, but they will continue to pay. Growth may falter, but the company will survive. A dependable, if uninspiring, behemoth, poised to benefit from whatever technological revolutions happen to come along, and equally prepared to weather those that don’t.

The stock, recently exhibiting a disconcerting weakness, now trades at roughly the same level as it did during the market’s brief flirtation with reality last April. A curious state of affairs, and a timely reminder that even the bluest of blue chips are not immune to gravity. An excellent opportunity, one might say, to acquire a share in a company that, while hardly innovative, is at least reliably profitable.

Alphabet

Alphabet, alas, is more vulnerable. Its reliance on advertising revenue, a notoriously fickle mistress, renders it susceptible to the whims of economic fortune. A prolonged downturn will undoubtedly impact its growth. However, the Google marketplace remains indispensable, a digital agora where advertisers, despite their protestations, will continue to compete for attention. A resilient business, certainly, but one whose fortunes are inextricably linked to the prevailing mood of consumer confidence.

Once the inevitable recovery arrives, advertising spending will, as it always does, surge back with unrestrained enthusiasm. Patience, therefore, is a virtue. Those who accumulate shares during the decline will be handsomely rewarded. A predictable pattern, of course, but one that consistently eludes the more excitable members of the investment community.

Amazon

Amazon, like Alphabet, faces headwinds. Its core commerce business will suffer during a recession. However, its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division offers a degree of protection. The cloud computing model, a rental agreement for digital infrastructure, ensures a steady stream of revenue. Companies will continue to pay for access to their data, even as their profits dwindle. An unavoidable expense, in the modern age, and a source of considerable comfort for Amazon’s shareholders.

Growth, admittedly, will be constrained. But AWS accounted for a disproportionate share of operating profits during the last quarter, despite representing a relatively small percentage of overall sales. A reassuring statistic, and a harbinger of future stability. Once the recovery takes hold, Amazon will be well-positioned to capitalise on pent-up consumer demand and expand its cloud computing empire, catering to the needs of a world increasingly reliant on digital infrastructure.

None of these stocks are immune to a market correction. They will, inevitably, decline alongside the broader market. But they possess qualities that suggest they will emerge stronger on the other side, having weathered the storm with a degree of stoicism. Vital, indispensable, and quietly profitable. A rare combination, in these turbulent times.

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2026-02-23 17:33