Thompson, Siegel, and Walmsley (TSW) acquired $36.4 million of Conagra Brands stock in Q3 2025, lifting their holding to 5.27 million shares valued at $96.48 million. The purchase, disclosed in an SEC filing dated November 12, 2025, signals a bet on a company whose shares have collapsed 59% from their peak.
Numbers Without Illusions
The transaction speaks plainly. TSW spent $44.75 million at average quarterly prices to build a position now worth less than its acquisition cost. Conagra’s share price-$17.22 as of December 1-has bled 33% annually, dragging returns 49 percentage points below the S&P 500. This is not a stock for the faint-hearted.
Portfolio Context
Conagra now constitutes 1.56% of TSW’s 13F assets. The fund’s largest holdings remain Aercap Holdings ($156.71M), LKQ Corp ($108.26M), and Huntington Ingalls ($105.43M). These are not glamorous picks. They are the bones of value investing: unloved, unexciting, and potentially undervalued.
Business Realities
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $11.45 billion |
| Net Income (TTM) | $850.10 million |
| Dividend Yield | 8.13% |
| Price (as of market close 11/11/25) | $17.22 |
Corporate Anatomy
- Operates under brands like Birds Eye, Slim Jim, and Healthy Choice-a portfolio of convenience foods for a world that increasingly demands it.
- Revenue stems from retail, foodservice, and international channels, relying on scale rather than innovation.
- Customers range from supermarkets to institutional buyers, all chasing the same paradox: branded reliability at commodity prices.
Conagra is not dying. It is merely being priced as if it might. At 0.7x sales and 7x free cash flow, the market assumes a grim prognosis. Yet its dividend-8.1% and seemingly secure-hints at a different narrative: one where survival, not growth, becomes the investment thesis.
Debt Shadows
The elephant in the room: $7.5 billion of long-term debt against an $8.2 billion market cap. This is not a crisis, yet. But it is a warning. The company must reduce leverage to protect its dividend and its existence. TSW’s bet assumes management can thread this needle-a feat requiring discipline, not genius.
Glossary of Necessity
Assets Under Management (AUM): The total value of funds controlled by an institution.
13F: A regulatory requirement for transparency, though often as revealing as a foggy window.
Dividend Yield: A siren song for income-seekers, but meaningless if dividends are cut.
Trailing Twelve Months (TTM): A rearview mirror metric in a world that moves forward.
Foodservice Operators: Entities that feed the masses, often with little regard for poetry.
Transaction Value: The price paid, not the price hoped for.
Final Verdict
TSW’s move is not bold. It is calculated-a wager on stagnation, not resurgence. Conagra’s stability is real, but so are its headwinds: saturated markets, GLP-1 drugs reshaping appetites, and debt that refuses to vanish. The stock is cheap because optimism has fled. Whether it’s a bargain or a trap depends on whether you believe in survival as a strategy. 📉
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2025-12-02 22:53